By: Habtemariam H.
Ethiopia has been embroiled in one of the deadliest civil wars in its history, which has unfolded under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The war, which started in 2020, has claimed more than 1.5 million lives in just six years, making it one of the most devastating conflicts not just for Ethiopia but possibly for the entire world. Despite the enormous cost, both in terms of lives and resources, Abiy continues to pursue this war, with rumors suggesting he intends to extend it into neighbouring countries.
The question is, why? Why would a leader, particularly one with such a significant opportunity to steer Ethiopia toward peace and prosperity, persist in a destructive war that has brought the country to its knees? The reasons behind Abiy’s relentless drive for war are both surprising and telling, and they provide insight into his psychological makeup as a leader.
1) He Is Told by His Prophets That He Is the “Winner”
Abiy Ahmed seems to have fallen under the influence of those who surround him, particularly his close advisors and supporters who continually reinforce his beliefs. In many ways, these advisors function as “prophets,” telling him that he is destined to be victorious. They paint a picture of success that contradicts the grim reality on the ground. Instead of focusing on reconciliation and peace, they keep telling him that his vision for a unified Ethiopia can only be realized through war, no matter the cost. This belief in his inevitable victory seems to be a driving force behind his insistence on continuing the war, even as the human toll continues to rise.
2) He Believes That Time Will Prove He Is Correct – Like Emperor Tedros Before Him
Abiy’s view of history is another factor that seems to fuel his decision-making. He appears to believe that time will vindicate him, much like Emperor Tedros (Theodore) of the 19th century, who believed that his reign would ultimately be seen as a golden era for Ethiopia. Abiy seems to be under the impression that if he pushes through this crisis, history will remember him as a great leader, one who overcame adversity and achieved his vision of a unified Ethiopia. He seems to think that with time, the narrative of his leadership will shift in his favour. Unfortunately, this mindset overlooks the immense damage being done to the people of Ethiopia and the long-term consequences that will be felt by generations to come.
3) He Believes That He Can Realize His Vision Through War – And War Alone
At the core of Abiy’s strategy seems to be a belief that his grand vision for Ethiopia can only be realized through military might. In Abiy’s eyes, Ethiopia’s political and social unity can only be forged in the fires of war. His ambition is not only to win the war but to use it as a mechanism for enforcing his vision across the country. This is an incredibly dangerous mindset, as it disregards the fact that peace-building and national unity cannot be achieved through force. The war has proven to be not just destructive but counterproductive, alienating Ethiopians from one another and creating deeper divisions that will take decades to heal.
4) He Has War-Mongering Advisors and Collaborators, especially from the Oromia Region
One of the most alarming aspects of Abiy’s leadership is the role played by his advisors and collaborators. Particularly from the Oromia region, where his political base lies, there seems to be a continuous stream of misinformation fed to him. These advisors are telling Abiy that victory is within his grasp, when in fact the situation is growing worse with each passing day. This war-mongering attitude, combined with misleading reports, has fuelled Abiy’s misguided belief that he is on the verge of winning. This creates a dangerous cycle in which the reality on the ground is ignored, and Abiy continues to escalate the conflict in the misguided belief that he is near success.
5) He Is Afraid of the Post-War Accountability
Another driving force behind Abiy’s decision to continue the war is his fear of post-war accountability. If the war were to end today, there would undoubtedly be significant pressure on Abiy to answer for the war crimes and human rights abuses that have occurred under his watch. From reports of massacres to the displacement of millions of civilians, the aftermath of this war will require tough questions and accountability. Abiy’s reluctance to step down or pursue peace talks could be attributed to a fear that such accountability would bring his downfall. Instead of acknowledging his mistakes and working toward peace, he seems to prefer the status quo – where the war continues and the focus remains on survival rather than reconciliation.
6) He Is Not Educated or Mentored on How to Lead Wisely
Abiy Ahmed has shown little understanding of the wisdom required to lead a country, especially one in such turmoil. His leadership style seems to be driven more by an emotional reaction to challenges rather than strategic, long-term planning. Unlike some of his predecessors, who learned the importance of diplomacy and negotiated settlements, Abiy appears to believe that he can solve Ethiopia’s issues through force alone. His lack of education or mentorship on wise leadership is evident, as he continues to make decisions that exacerbate the conflict. The failure to learn from history, particularly from past leaders who found peace through negotiation, highlights his flawed approach to governance.
7) He Believes He Can Lead for a Century If He Overcomes This Crisis
Abiy’s belief in his own invincibility may also stem from a misguided sense of destiny. He seems to think that if he can push through the current crisis, he will emerge stronger and more capable of leading Ethiopia for decades to come. In his mind, overcoming this challenge will solidify his position as the country’s leader for the foreseeable future. This illusion of eternal leadership prevents him from seeing the dangers of prolonging the war. If Abiy truly wants to secure a legacy, he should focus on building peace, not on consolidating power through violence.
8) He Is Misled by False Results – He Sees Parks and Green Areas As Major Achievements
Finally, Abiy’s perception of success is skewed by a false sense of achievement. He has pointed to the development of parks and green spaces in Addis Ababa as proof of progress, but these are superficial markers that distract from the much larger, more pressing issues facing the country. While environmental initiatives are important, they do not address the underlying problems of war, displacement, and suffering. Abiy’s obsession with such symbols of success blinds him to the reality of the human devastation caused by the ongoing conflict.
The Time Has Come to End the War
It is clear that no war can be won against the general public. Abiy’s time as a leader is coming to an end, and it is imperative that he refrains from dragging the country into further disaster. The war has already cost too many lives and displaced millions of Ethiopians. His refusal to engage in meaningful peace talks only prolongs the suffering of his people. It is time for Abiy to step up, acknowledge the mistakes made, and end this war for the sake of Ethiopia’s future. Only then can the country begin the process of healing and rebuilding.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
__
Subscribe: https://borkena.com/subscribe-borkena/
Join our Telegram Channel : t.me/borkena
Like borkena on Facebook
Add your business to Ethiopian Business Listing / Ethiopian Business Directory
Join the conversation. Follow us on X (Formerly Twitter) @zborkena to get the latest Ethiopian News updates regularly. Subscribe to YouTube channel To share information or for submission, send e-mail to info@borkena.com
So soft!