Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
By Addissu Admas
Most of the crises Ethiopia is undergoing today are of PM Abiy’s own making. If Ethiopia had any claim to democratic rule, he would have been called to tender his resignation immediately, with a possibility of impeachment. But as things stand, he is being let to continue pushing the country to the brink of disintegration. The crises we are living through today are not due to the PM’s ill-intention or malice as some continue to suggest, but stem from his lack of long-term strategic thinking and clear awareness of consequences.
Today, every major region (Killil) is in upheaval. Oromia, Amhara, Tigray and Ogaden are effectively on a war footing. The federal government’s intention, if we are to believe some prominent political leaders in the country, is preparing again for another war against Eritrea. This time not to resolve a territorial issue, but for some unspecified reason: Is it to annex Assab as part of the grand plan of having access to the Red Sea? Is it to reconquer Eritrea for the same reason that Putin is fighting in Ukraine, or Xi Jinping seems to be planning to do with Taiwan? Or is it to install a puppet government friendly to Ethiopia? Is it simply to prevent TPLF’s old guard from joining force with Isaias? Whatever his reason, it is the height of Abiy ‘s hubris to think that he can win such a war with practically every major armed group in the country rearing to fight the federal government. Never since the advent of the Woyane regime has Ethiopia been so close to resembling the former Yugoslavia on the eve of her disintegration. We are at this point in our shared history precisely because of the many strategic blunders committed by PM Abiy.
There is no question that the PM was amply justified in pushing the TPLF out of power. In fact, he deserves credit for it. He was even more justified in denouncing and imprisoning their most corrupt and ruthless officials. He also deserves plaudits for relegating the TPLF to regional politics, instead of letting it meddle with national issues.
The PM’s lack of strategic vision began to be evident in the way he handled the Tigray war from its very inception to this day. It may be understandable that he opted to go to war against the TDF (Tigray Defense Force) for its treacherous murder of the EDF’s (Ethiopian Defense Force) soldiers stationed in the Northern Command. However, in retrospect, I believe that ultimately the EDF fell into the trap the TPLF had prepared for it for a long time. The PM rushed into war ill-prepared and while the entire EDF was heavily infiltrated by the TPLF cadre and officers. A more cool-headed and strategic leader would have first tried to resolve the matter through court martial, or through some other institutional body having a say in the matter. By most estimates, the EDF/TDF war has had more casualties than the Ethio-Italian war of 1936-37. For all we know, it may have been the bloodiest war Ethiopians have experienced in their long history. Was it worth it? The verdict is clear: absolutely not. It has plunged the country in a more confused and disoriented state. It created more enmity among peoples who had lived together for hundreds, if not thousands of years together. It resolved none of the issues it was meant to resolve. On the contrary, it made them more intractable: every known militant group is more armed today and ready to fight; the contested zones in the so-called Western Tigray or Northern Amhara (however you want to see it) still remains so; Tigray is not pacified but divided; a devastating famine is in the offing, etc.… To this very day, Eritrea has not left Tigray’s territory and has not made clear its intentions.
It is obvious that Eritrea was not included in the Pretoria and Nairobi negotiations because her crucial participation in the EDF and TDF war has never been acknowledged. Even though Eritrea could have justified her participation in that war, and thus her demand for participation in the negotiations, since the TDF had inexplicably attacked her capital Asmara at the start of the war. If president Isaias is holding a grudge against this unpardonable snub by Abiy Ahmed, he is more than justified. Eritrea should have been part of the negotiations even if these would have resulted in more arduous and complicated. Her participation may have prevented the crisis we are witnessing today.
It may be because of this snub that Abiy Ahmed, again impulsively and recklessly, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Somaliland’s government to secure a naval base for Ethiopia in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence and perhaps a share in ET (Ethiopian Airlines). It took the government of Abiy a lot more negotiations with Somalia’s government to avert a war and come to some kind of understanding for this diplomatic slight. Somalia, as the government of Ethiopia should have known, has never ceased to lay claim on Somaliland. Was it hubris, jingoism, or sheer stupidity? Any seasoned leader would have known that to ignore Somalia and negotiate directly with Somaliland was a clear and bold provocation against the sovereignty of Somalia.
Like all Ethiopians, PM Abiy knows clearly that the port of Assab is the natural maritime outlet for Ethiopia. I am convinced that had he not bungled the Pretoria and Nairobi accords by excluding Eritrea, Ethiopia and Eritrea would have strengthened and deepened their cooperation to the point where Ethiopia would have not only secured a commercial port, but even a naval base on the Red Sea!
Another crucial contributor in the EDF and TDF war have been the non-legally established militia such as the Fano in the Amhara region. Here again, the PM antagonized this popular militia by demanding that it disarm while the TDF remained armed and still posing a real threat. Again, impulsively rashly, and arrogantly Abiy started a war against the Fano militia that he has been conducting by air for some time now, using drones bought from Turkey and Iran. It is unclear how many innocent Amhara civilians have lost their lives for this mind-numbingly idiotic war. I am fully convinced that if the PM had for a minute heeded the voice of reason, he would have let the House of Representative deal with the issue of disarmament, and the territorial dispute between Amhara and Tigray regions to the House of Federation, as previously mentioned. The PM chose instead, as would a typical autocrat, to resolve these issues through his executive powers. If Ethiopia had been a true democracy, he would have been challenged by either one of the Federal Houses or the courts.
Many are puzzled why the PM is having such a hard time with his old constituency of Oromia region. Afterall, when the TPLF was running de facto the Federal government, it was never seriously challenged, nor did it at any point allow any opposition party to operate within Tigray, let alone an armed one. The fact is that Abiy Ahmed does not seem to know where his allegiance lies. He continues trying to please Ethiopian nationalists as well as Oromo suprematists. The two are inherently incompatible. He cannot pursue the interests of all Ethiopians while trying to satisfy the demands of OLA or Orommuma propagandists. It is amply clear that he is not trusted by either side, and he has lost so much credibility that his continuance in power is a clear liability to Ethiopia.
Add to all these self-inflicted crises, the PM continues to play fast and loose with the constitution by disregarding and disrespecting the southern peoples by not only ignoring their legitimate and constitutionally supported request to claim separate region-hood, but by ridiculing their request from the outset.
What I have touched upon above are but some of the more obvious political crises of the PM’s own making. Obviously, there are many more in the economic realm that I leave to the professionals to deal with. Above everything else, what we are faced with today is the real possibility that Ethiopia will no longer exist if the PM rushes into declaring war on Eritrea. I strongly believe that if he wants to live up to the Nobel Prize that he has been awarded, just for once, he needs to pause and choose the peaceful alternative. In my view the peaceful alternative looks more like calling all aggrieved parties, including Eritrea – unless she opts not to – to resolve all our issues at the negotiating table rather than the battlefield.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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Great! A good and clear analysis.
Our King Abiy! please increase the attack against all terror groups in Ethiopia across all regions. Ethiopia no longer has a patience to deal with backward bandits in all regions. Please ignore such writers as well, they are not blessed, ALTEMEREKUM, they luck clear understanding on what is going on and they still biased. Lebebis nachaw, you know what you are doing sir, and Ethiopia appreciate it. I am In love with your work Sir! Keep shining Jegnaw!
Ignorant!