Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
By Dan A
This article aims to simplify the complex geopolitical dynamics in Ethiopia and Eritrea as much as possible. Many have already analyzed these issues from historical, political, and cultural perspectives. However, this approach seeks to present a straightforward and practical perspective that may be easier to understand and help people formulate solutions to this ongoing crisis.
In economics, real-world events are often represented using abstract models that highlight key factors influencing outcomes. Similarly, this article takes a simplified approach to summarize Ethiopia’s current situation, where multiple fractions with different goals and interests are involved.
The Key Players in the Conflict
Tigray
Tigray has two main factions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF):
• Debretsion Gebremichael’s faction represents the more independent, old-guard TPLF leadership.
• Getachew Reda’s faction is more aligned with Ethiopia’s central government.
Despite their differences, the details of their internal conflicts are not the primary focus of this article.
Amhara
Amhara has multiple factions:
• Eskinder Nega’s Fano rebel group
• Zemene Kase’s Fano rebel group
• BADEN, which, like Getachew’s TPLF faction, is aligned with the central government.
While some argue that Eskinder’s vision aligns with a historic Ethiopia and Zemene’s is more Amhara-centric, their primary conflict appears to be a power struggle. This can be resolved later, but their immediate struggle for influence must be addressed urgently.
Eritrea
Eritrea is led by Isaias Afwerki, its uncontested leader. He commands a strong military that has successfully repelled multiple Ethiopian aggressions, most recently during the TPLF’s conflict with the central Ethiopian government.
Ethiopia’s Central Government
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed leads a government that appears to push an Oromo nationalist ideology called Oromummaa, which many believe is responsible for widespread conflicts, displacement, and ethnic cleansing in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia.
Although Abiy presents himself as a unifier, most Ethiopians do not believe he genuinely works toward a united Ethiopia. His Prosperity Party is widely seen as prioritizing Oromo dominance at the expense of other ethnic groups.
Other Influential Groups
• Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is an armed faction that holds even more extreme Oromummaa views. Some believe they function as the “bad cop” version of Abiy’s government.
• The Somali Region has not significantly opposed Abiy’s rule and remains relatively neutral in the conflict.
The Root of the Conflict
The ongoing conflicts between these factions stem from historical tensions, power struggles, and territorial disputes. Key developments include:
• Tigray’s long-standing tensions with Amhara and Eritrea.
• The Amhara Fano’s existential struggle against the Oromuma-led government and its Amhara allies in BADEN.
• Amhara’s previous alliance with Abiy’s government to repel TPLF’s advances toward Addis Ababa, which forced the TPLF to retreat and negotiate peace. However, this peace deal has since weakened, leading to renewed tensions.
• Abiy’s attempt to align with Getachew Reda’s TPLF faction to suppress the Amhara Fano uprising and launch potential attacks on Eritrea.
• Eritrea’s growing concerns over Ethiopia’s claims for sea access, which some view as a distraction from Abiy’s internal struggles.
Despite these conflicts, Ethiopia’s central government is militarily weak. Abiy lacks Amhara support and does not have the capacity to wage war against Eritrea. His defense forces rely heavily on foreign aid and weapon purchases to maintain control.
A Simple Solution to a Complex Problem
Given this dynamic, what would be a common-sense solution to end the conflict? A true leader would look past minor disputes and focus on the root cause of instability. At present, the Oromuma government stands as the main threat to the stability of Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea.
Oromummaa ambitions include:
• Maintaining Oromo political dominance at the expense of other ethnic groups. • Seizing land and wealth from Amhara, Somalia, Afar, and Benishangul. • Attempting to annex Eritrean territory to gain access to the Red Sea.
If all the opposing factions recognize Oromummaa as the common enemy, why have they failed to unite against it? Some argue external factors are at play, while others point to Abiy’s deliberate strategy of fostering distrust between Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea.
Abiy has publicly stated that Amhara and Tigray must never be allowed to form an alliance because he knows such a coalition would end his rule. His military leadership is already weak, and a coordinated attack by an Amhara-Tigray alliance would be devastating for his regime.
A Path to Victory: The Alliance That Can End Oromummaa Rule
It is almost unbelievable that the leaders of Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea have not yet realized the most straightforward solution: unite against the Oromuma regime. A temporary settlement of their differences and a united front against Abiy’s government would send shockwaves through the Oromummaa power structure, leading to its rapid collapse.
If an alliance between Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea were announced, the consequences would be immediate:
• Abiy would flee at the first opportunity.
• His generals would desert him, knowing they cannot win against a united opposition.
• The Oromuma political structure would crumble, with its members retreating into Oromia without resistance.
• Addis Ababa would stabilize, welcoming Amhara Fano and Tigrayan forces as liberators.
Is this not a feasible and practical solution? Why are the leaders of these factions wasting time on internal conflicts while their true adversary consolidates power in Addis Ababa?
The Danger of Continued Division
Ethiopia’s inability to resolve its crisis internally is astonishing. Instead of taking control of their fate, many Ethiopians look to foreign powers for aid, influence, and political leverage. Historically, Ethiopia has prided itself on self-reliance. Yet today, we see:
• Fano leaders attacking each other, instead of uniting.
• Tigrayan factions betray one another, rather than focusing on their common enemy.
• Eritrea seeking alliances abroad, instead of securing its region.
• Abiy continues unchecked, arresting and killing opponents at will. A Simple, Three-Step Plan for Change
The solution is simple:
1. Establish direct communication between Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea’s leaders.
2. Identify Oromuma as the common threat and agree on a temporary alliance to remove it.
3. Publicly announce this alliance to national and international audiences.
Once this alliance is made public, the Oromuma regime would begin to crumble from within. Even if Abiy attempts to fight back, he would find himself isolated and without military support.
The worst mistake would be to overcomplicate the solution by delving into past grievances, ethnic divisions, or detailed power-sharing plans before addressing the root issue. The focus must remain singular and strategic: removing Oromuma rule first, then discussing the future of Ethiopia.
Final Thoughts: A Call for Unity
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results. If Ethiopia’s leaders continue down the same path of division and infighting, the consequences will be catastrophic:
• More innocent lives lost
• Continued poverty and suffering
• The Oromummaa regime thriving at Ethiopia’s expense
• Ethiopia’s potential fragmentation into smaller states
Sanity must prevail. The leaders of Amhara, Tigray, and Eritrea must act now—unite, announce an alliance, and watch Oromummaa collapse from within. The path to peace is clear.
Wake up, Fano leaders! Wake up, Tigrayan leaders! Eritrea, join the fight! End the madness—it’s not that hard!
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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