The views, statements and opinion in the article reflects that of the writer’s , NOT borkena.com ‘s
By Wakjira Tesfaye
The recent defense pact signed between Egypt and Somalia in August 2024 has intensified the already fragile situation in the Horn of Africa, particularly alarming Ethiopia. The arrival of Egyptian military aircraft in Mogadishu marks the commencement of this agreement, which many perceive as a strategic move by Egypt to gain leverage in its ongoing dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Egypt’s Strategic Calculations: Leveraging Somalia for Nile Dominance
Egypt’s military ties with Somalia are more than a response to regional security concerns; they are a calculated move to exert pressure on Ethiopia in the Nile dispute. The GERD has been a source of intense diplomatic conflict, with Egypt fearing that the dam will significantly reduce its share of Nile waters, thereby threatening its agricultural sector and overall water security.
The military alliance with Somalia gives Egypt a foothold in Ethiopia’s backyard, which can be seen as an attempt to encircle Ethiopia strategically. This is particularly alarming given the volatile nature of the region, where borders and political alliances are fluid, and longstanding ethnic and national rivalries persist. By stationing troops in Somalia, Egypt effectively positions itself to influence regional dynamics, which could directly impact Ethiopia’s ability to operate the GERD without external interference.
From an international law perspective, this maneuver by Egypt raises significant concerns. The principle of equitable and reasonable utilization of shared watercourses is a well-established tenet of international law, enshrined in the UN Watercourses Convention. Ethiopia’s right to utilize the Blue Nile for the GERD is grounded in this principle. Egypt’s attempts to militarize its response to the GERD through alliances like the one with Somalia can be interpreted as a violation of Ethiopia’s sovereign rights, as it seeks to pressure Addis Ababa into concessions that may not align with its developmental needs.
Ethiopia’s Legitimate Concerns: Defending Sovereignty and Regional Stability
Ethiopia’s response to the Egypt-Somalia defense pact is rooted in legitimate concerns over its national security and regional stability. Ethiopia has historically been a key player in Somalia, particularly in the fight against Al-Shabaab militants. The presence of Egyptian troops so close to its border is not only a direct security threat but also a potential destabilizing factor in a region already fraught with conflicts.
The Ethiopian government has expressed its concerns that this alliance could undermine the progress made in stabilizing Somalia and could lead to increased tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, two countries that have had complex and sometimes contentious relations. Moreover, Ethiopia’s strategic interest in securing access to the Red Sea through Somaliland complicates the situation further. The recent deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which includes the leasing of a portion of Somaliland’s coastline for a naval base, has already caused friction with Somalia. The involvement of Egypt in this tense environment could exacerbate these tensions, leading to a broader conflict with potentially disastrous consequences for the region.
Somalia’s Position: A Risky Alliance with Far-Reaching Consequences
Somalia’s decision to enter into a military alliance with Egypt raises questions about whether this move truly serves its national interests or whether it positions Somalia as a pawn in Egypt’s broader geopolitical strategy. While the Somali government may argue that the pact strengthens its defense capabilities, particularly against terrorism, the long-term implications could be detrimental to Somalia’s sovereignty and its relations with neighboring countries, particularly Ethiopia.
The alliance could potentially draw Somalia into a conflict that is primarily driven by Egypt’s interests in the Nile dispute. This not only risks further destabilizing Somalia, which is still recovering from decades of civil war, but also alienates its neighbors. The presence of foreign troops on Somali soil, especially those from a country with vested interests in the region’s hydro-political conflicts, could exacerbate existing tensions and lead to a situation where Somalia’s sovereignty is compromised.
Conclusion: The Need for Caution and Respect for Sovereignty
The Egypt-Somalia defense pact is a significant development in the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa, with far-reaching implications for regional stability. While Egypt may view the alliance as a strategic countermeasure against Ethiopia’s GERD, the reality is that this pact risks destabilizing the region and undermining the principles of international law, particularly those related to state sovereignty and the equitable use of shared resources.
Ethiopia’s concerns are valid and reflect a broader need for a cautious approach to regional diplomacy. The international community must recognize the potential for this alliance to ignite further conflict in a region that cannot afford more instability. Upholding the principles of sovereignty, non-interference, and equitable resource use is crucial in navigating the complex geopolitics of the Nile Basin and ensuring that the interests of all states, particularly those most vulnerable, are respected.
Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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Now I want to say a word or two about those who are celebrating Egypt’s alleged move in Somalia and its thinly veiled declaration of war on the in the innocent black folks of Ethiopia. Shame on you! Some of you are home grown and certified bigots who are gripped with avowed hatred for Oromos, Amharas and Tigres. You throw around pejorative and profane words like candies. Some of you might have born in Ethiopia but now hold a different citizenship. What distinguish you from other bigots is you rest the blame on the leaders of the old country and tell us it deserves the reckless saber rattling by e-Sisi and his thugs. I don’t think you are doing this with the blessing from Brother Isaias. He knows the real motive of Egyptian leaders throughout their modern history. He knows very well that in their eyes he is just another abid(a nigger) just as how they see any other Ethiopian. If you doubt me you should watch this video of his past speech:
youtube.com/watch?v=OrX2Px2EC1Y
He did not mince his words. So if you are dancing to the tune of el-Sisi and his death squad, you are dancing shamelessly alone. But you should know one fact etched in the stones of our glorious history. Those that raised their hands on the old country all meet their fate in the most humiliating ways. Crispi was dragged out of the office in 1896 like a disgraced thief. Mussolini did not meet his final fate posing up but hanging down like a pelt of an otter just hunted down in the fur trade. Siad Barre was beaten and chased out of his country as if he was caught robbing a bank in the Old West and died on a dirty sheet in a hospital built for the homeless in Lagos, Nigeria. Nasser in his final days used to look like that disheveled homeless wino from the streets of LA, Chicago or New York and suddenly suffocated to death of diabetes he got from gobbling down too much sugary carb. Not a different fate awaits that Halawa drunk rabid dog el-Sisi if he dares to do something ‘funny’ to the those innocent black folks whose only ‘crime’ is their working hard to take themselves out of darkness without taking away the share of water from the Blue Nile River of their historical neighbors near and afar.
Okay bigots and connivers! Keep on wiggling your hips because that may be your last chance dancing!!! Mark my word for it!!!