By Mekuria
Social media platforms are buzzing with debates and discussions on various political issues related to Ethiopia, highlighting the importance of online dialogue and awareness. While social media can amplify voices and mobilize support for social causes, it is essential to consider opposing views and fact-check information to combat misinformation. This piece aims to challenge one-sided perspectives and encourage the consideration of alternative views in public discourse. Recent topics on social media, such as unified leadership among Fanos, the impasse in the Fano movement, potential transition, and the roles of stakeholders, have sparked intense debates. By presenting alternative views, this exposition seeks to contribute positively to the ongoing discourse on Ethiopia’s future.
Unified leadership amongst Fano
Discussing the need for unified leadership among Fano is a valid topic, but reconciling opinions among armed groups is a challenging task that should be considered in our discussions. It is not as straightforward as forming a political party in urban areas. The Fano movement began with a widespread revolt, resulting in the rise of multiple leaders at the Kebele, Wereda, Zonal, and Provincial administration levels. Establishing a cohesive unified leadership in such a situation is challenging. It is not advisable to be harsh on Fanos in this scenario, and we should let the process settle naturally as long as the primary goal, the fight against Abiy Ahmed, continues.
However, we should not hesitate to criticize individuals who make baseless accusations against established facts. Some Fano leaders are more focused on self-promotion, resorting to labeling others as thieves, bandits, traitors, and collaborators with the enemy, employing propaganda tactics reminiscent of the PP and the TPLF. For example, Asres Mare, the second-in-command of the Gojam Fano led by Zemene Kasse, made inflammatory statements about Eskinder Nega and Masresha Setie in an interview with Ghion Media. Zemene Kasse has yet to publicly denounce Asres Mare’s remarks. Leaders exhibiting such behavior are not suitable to lead the Amhara people towards their objectives, and Fano members should be cautious of individuals with such traits. Engaging in character assassination without providing evidence against fellow Fano leaders is unacceptable, and the Amhara community should not blindly support such leaders.
During an interview with Minalachew Semachew, Marshet Tsehaye, a member of the Gojam Fano, indicated that their group is not interested in engaging in conflict with Tigray and would not retaliate if the TPLF were to advance into the Amhara region (meaning Wolqayit). Zemene Kasse, the leader of the Gojam Fano, did not correct Marshet during another interview. While acknowledging the significant achievements and bravery of Zemene Kasse and his group in Gojjam, it raises doubts about his ability to unite the Amhara people and advocate for their rights. Recently, Marshet was observed in discussions with Minalachew, mocking Eskinder by claiming to possess voice evidence of a conversation with Ambassador Taye Atske Selassie and Sileshi but failing to provide any evidence of Eskinder Nega compromising Amhara interests to the ruling party. It is concerning that such immature tactics could lead Amharas to question Eskinder’s leadership within the Fano movement, despite his early distancing from Abiy Ahmed when others were supportive of him. If negotiations are to be pursued, the Fano movement requires political leadership, either through a collective effort or a coordinating team, and Eskinder is undoubtedly a qualified candidate, comparable to Zemene Kasse or Asegid Mekonnen. With his experience and education, he is well-equipped to assume such a role. It is crucial to emphasize that we are discussing political leadership here, not military leadership.
Stalemate
Irresponsible activists and journalists often criticize Fano for not advancing the struggle against Abiy Ahmed faster, as if armed fighting is a 90-minute soccer match. They say stalemate and stalemate now and then. They view Fano’s efforts as simplistic and akin to village fighting, failing to recognize the manpower and armament capacity of Fano compared to the government that amasses enormous wealth. To them, a march to Arat Kilo seems like a simple picnic walk. They lack knowledge and information about the ongoing situation in Amhara. Recently, confidential information from the Amhara Health Bureau revealed that hospitals and clinics are overwhelmed with wounded ENDF soldiers loyal to Abiy. Even corridors, tents and the open field are being used to accommodate the influx of patients. Does this indicate inactivity by Fano? Abiy’s army is facing a paramount challenge in dealing with the attacks from Fano. In a desperate move, Abiy is trying to boost morale by enlisting underage boys, again a live testament that Fano is increasing and improving its war plans. እነዚህ ሁሉ ክስተቶች የሚያሳዩት ፋኖ አርቆ የሚተኩስ እንጂ አርቆ የሚያስብ አይደለም የሚሉትን ያንዳንድ ሰዎች አነጋገር ጥልቀት የሌለው አስተሳሰብ መሆኑን ነው።
Fano’s Role in the Political Equation
Political analysts have speculated about a transitional government being discussed in Western circles, emphasizing the importance of Fano in leading the change out of transitional power by having a unified command and a manifesto. Yes, a unified command among Fano is crucial to reassure the public that there is no vacuum created and that public safety is maintained. The idea that Fano would be excluded from the transitional arrangement if they are unable to deliver a manifesto is absurd. Even without a unified command, it is impossible to have a transition without Fano. In fact, a transitional government without Fano would be ineffective and advantageous to Fano. The notion of Fano losing its esteem in a transitional government is often put forward by Ethiopianist Shene nationalists who advocate for Fano to collaborate with the TPLF and Oromo hardliners, including OLA.
To such people, I say Fano without a unified command can still defeat Abiy Ahmed. All that is needed is to widen the war front against Abiy Ahmed. There is a reason why the Americans persuaded Mengistu to go into exile in Zimbabwe when the TPLF entered north Shewa in 1991. Do you remember Mengistu left on April 13, 1991, and Tesfaye Weldekidane was elected as president, replacing Mengistu? What happened then? It was a piece of cake for the TPLF to defeat the Ethiopian Military. Just within two weeks, the EPRDF knocked on the doors of Addis Ababa, and the TPLF-led EPRDF took power in May 1991, defeating Tesfaye’s one-month-old government. When conducting political analysis, one should not hastily conclude that Fano is being left out. One has to think over what follows immediately after a transitional government. When OroMara was formed in 2018 to oust TPLF from central power in Ethiopia, it was easy to push away ANDM because it was not well-organized and had no force plan to challenge OPDO. It is impossible to sideline an armed group as strong as Fano from a transitional government like the OPDO did to the ANDM. Doing so, in fact, helps and accelerates Fano’s ability to fight and control power in the center.
Ethiopia on the brink of disintegration: What should be done?
There are inexperienced political analysts, particularly Ethiopianist Amharas, who attempt to sway the minds of ordinary Amharas by raising irrelevant issues related to Amhara, evoking nostalgia for the Ethiopian concept. The disintegration of Ethiopia is in fact a good thing for the Amharas and the Fano. It could serve as a swift means to free Amharas from the grip of Abiy Ahmed. The Ethiopian entity possesses enormous resources and manpower that Abiy Ahmed currently employs against the Fano and Amharas. The Amharas and Fanos do not benefit from this entity. They have been deprived of everything their country can offer. If Ethiopia disintegrates, the playing field will be leveled, with the lightweight fighter Fano and the heavyweight fighter ENDF ultimately being on equal footing, leading to a confrontation where Abiy’s army will be easily defeated.
Negotiations
Negotiations between Fano and the government, if deemed necessary, should prioritize the interests of the Amhara people. Fano should use its leverage to push the government, which faces enormous economic challenges, into talks to resolve the conflict in their favor. The negotiations should lead to tangible progress for the Amhara cause. The Amhara people reject the Abiy government and seek sovereignty in the region. The government lacks the consent of the Amhara people to enter Amhara. Before negotiations, the government should withdraw its military, restore essential services like communication, power, water, healthcare, and education, release political prisoners, unfreeze Amhara investors’ bank accounts, reopen banks, and ensure the free flow of goods and services. The government should also agree to hold Army commanders accountable through an international tribunal. These discussions will strengthen Fano’s position and empower the Amhara community, paving the way for the next stage of talks.
Who should engage with Western and foreign diplomats?
The simple answer to this question is anyone who is concerned about Ethiopia. The only exception is that such consultations should be limited to a private capacity or a group they officially represent. In such circumstances, it is a positive development that Gedu Andargachew and Engineer Yilkal Getnet had a conversation with Ambassador Massinga. Firstly, they are both Amharas speaking about matters affecting the Amhara region, and secondly, they are politically experienced. Thirdly, they are Ethiopians, which gives them the authority to engage with any representative on matters related to Ethiopia. Fourthly, when a US official requests a meeting, they cannot and should not decline. Fifthly, their proposal for a transitional government, which differs from Abiy Ahmed’s views, is a reasonable political stance.
There are organizations in the West that can amplify the plight of the Amharas, such as Triple A, FANA, and IAM. Triple A has been advocating for the Amhara people since before Abiy Ahmed came to power in Ethiopia. Triple A is commendable for documenting and sharing information on the escalating human rights violations in the Amhara region and among Amharas outside the region. Chairman Tewodros Tirfie and his team have done a fantastic job representing the Amhara community on the world stage during the recent wave of Amhara killings from 2019 to 2022. They worked tirelessly lobbying the US government to enact HR600, unfortunately facing opposition from misguided Ethiopians.
FANA and IAM were established during a time when Abiy Ahmed received significant support from Ethiopians, including Amharas. Despite a herd mentality, there were reasonable and forward-thinking Amharas who refused to support Abiy Ahmed amidst the killings of ordinary Amharas in Oromia, Benishangul, and other parts of Ethiopia. FANA and IAM were formed in response to Abiy Ahmed’s repression and now have the moral authority to represent the Amhara people on the international stage. Now, IAM and FANA should have taken the lead in facilitating discussions and advocating with US officials and diplomats regarding the war in Amhara region, but for unknown reasons, they have not been proactive. Amharas worldwide have a stake in Ethiopian affairs; IAM and FANA, as representative organizations, can hold consultations with the West on their own. They could also engage with Fano leaders and seek their approval to engage with foreign governments without making decisions on their behalf. Continuous consultations should be held throughout the process if necessary.
The TPLF is neither weak nor incapacitated
Naivety is rampant among political pundits and Ethiopianist Oromo Shenes speculating about the TPLF. It is widely acknowledged that the TPLF army, also known as TDF by some Tigryans to give it a more favorable image, was decisively defeated in the battles of Debressina and Gashena primarily by Amhara special forces and Amhara Fano, respectively. It was the Fano fighters who sacrificed their lives and breached the strong TPLF defenses at Gashena when the Ethiopian defense forces hesitated to act. After these defeats, the TPLF quickly regrouped near Mekelle. The USA promptly intervened for negotiations, and the TPLF accepted all conditions set by Abiy Ahmed to save itself from extinction. It is important to note that the TPLF, with its army of 270,000 and modern heavy and light armaments, remains intact. The issue in Tigray is primarily economic, and its military capabilities are still strong. The cunning TPLF avoided a war with Fano over control of what they claim as Southern and Western Tigray. This strategic decision was not driven by goodwill towards the Amharas but was a calculated move to weaken the Ethiopian defense forces by maintaining neutrality. The TPLF is confident in its ability to potentially win a conflict against the ENDF or Fano. The Amharas need to understand this key TPLF strategy and be ready to safeguard their interests, potentially through regional cooperation, especially for Wolqayit.
Conclusions
Discussions about Fano’s role in the political equation and the stalemate in the conflict with Abiy Ahmed should take into account the complexities of the situation in Amhara. While a unified leadership among Fano is a valid topic, reconciling opinions among multiple armed groups is challenging and must be acknowledged. As long as each Fano faction continues to build its army and engage the Ethiopian Defence Force, the lack of unified leadership will not substantially hinder the Fano movement.
Speculations by political analysts about a transitional government often create panic regarding Fano’s exclusion from the process. However, the notion of excluding Fano from the transitional arrangement is unrealistic. An armed group like Fano cannot remain passive when external support favors a candidate from Oromia or Tigray to assume power in Arat Kilo. This is not the time for OroTigray to lead the change. We are discussing an endangered species, the Amhara, whose survival can only be ensured by empowering the Amhara people to lead the power corridors.
If negotiations are deemed feasible, the federal government must first release imprisoned Amharas and withdraw from the Amhara region as it lacks the consent of the local population. Furthermore, it is essential to address the provision of essential services such as schools, health centers, banking, telephone, and internet access before proceeding with negotiations.
All Amharas should be aware that the Amhara question cannot be resolved through any compromise other than having an Amhara-led government at the federal level. Without control over Ethiopia, there can be no protection of Amhara interests. The Tutsi plight was resolved when Paul Kagame took over leadership in Rwanda. The same principle applies to the Amhara community.
Fano, especially the Gondar Fano, should establish a contingency army to deter potential aggression from the TPLF. It is crucial to cultivate Fano leadership in Telemt, Wolqayit, Humera, and Tegede. Welqayit holds greater significance than Addis Ababa.
Finally, IAM and FANA should proactively assert themselves on the international stage by lobbying, advocating, and representing the interests of the Amhara people, including the Fanos. They should not hesitate to take the lead in this regard. IAM and FANO does not need consent to discuss Amharas with foreign governments, but it does require Fanos’ consent to speak on behalf of Fanos.
Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
__
To Publish an Article On borkena , please send submission to info@borkena.com for consideration.
Join our Telegram Channel : t.me/borkena
Like borkena on Facebook
Add your business to Borkena Business Listing/Business Directory Jobs
Join the conversation. Follow us on X (formerly Twitter ) @zborkena to get the latest Ethiopian news updates regularly. Ethiopia To share information or for submission, send e-mail to info@borkena.com