Ethiopia approaches its 2026 national election with the outward form of democracy, but without its animating force.
There is process, but little belief.
There is participation, but little expectation.
There is an election, but little sense that power is truly at stake.
The ruling Prosperity Party is assumed to prevail. The opposition, fragmented and politically weak, has failed to present a credible alternative capable of mobilizing the population. Public debate exists, but it does not penetrate daily life.
This is not an accident.
It reflects a deeper condition: a political system that reproduces itself while limiting the possibility of meaningful challenge.
Elections, in such a system, serve to confirm power, not contest it.
For a country like Ethiopia, this has consequences that go beyond politics.
Because when elections cease to function as instruments of choice, they also cease to function as mechanisms of integration. The population is counted but not mobilized. It is included procedurally but excluded materially.
And in a moment of economic strain, that distinction becomes dangerous.
At the same time, Ethiopia is undergoing reforms shaped in large part by the logic of external discipline, particularly through engagement with the International Monetary Fund.
These reforms promise stability:
Lower inflation.
Controlled deficits.
Market-based allocation of resources.
But stability, in this framework, is defined narrowly.
It stabilizes accounts, but not necessarily production.
It reassures creditors, but not necessarily citizens.
It disciplines the state but does not transform the structure of the economy.
And here lies the contradiction.
An economy that remains dependent on imports, on a narrow export base, on external finance, cannot be stabilized into development. It can only be stabilized into managed vulnerability.
This vulnerability is now exposed.
Rising fuel costs, foreign exchange shortages, and internal conflict are not isolated pressures. They are expressions of a deeper structural condition: an economy that consumes more than it produces, and depends on external systems it does not control.
In such a context, political forms matter.
An election that lacks credibility does not simply fail as democracy.
It removes one of the few remaining mechanisms through which tension can be absorbed peacefully.
Economic hardship then finds other expressions, regional, social, and eventually, potentially violent.
At the same time, Ethiopia is being drawn outward.
Toward alignment with actors such as the United Arab Emirates. Toward strategic competition over access to the sea, including tensions with Eritrea.
These moves are often framed as assertions of national interest. But they risk doing the opposite.
Because a country that has not consolidated its internal economic base cannot project power externally without weakening itself further.
External ambition, in this context, becomes a substitute for internal transformation.
The alternative is not withdrawal.
It is reorientation.
Ethiopia’s best reset is not to become the model pupil of austerity, nor the loudest claimant of sea access, nor the supplicant of embattled Gulf monarchies.
It is to become, for the next 12 to 18 months, a state of protected production.
To protect fuel, not as a commodity, but as a condition for agriculture and transport.
To protect foreign exchange, not for consumption, but for necessity and production.
To protect roads and markets, not through militarization, but through de-escalation.
To protect national cohesion, not through rhetoric, but through restraint.
And to protect sovereignty, not by aligning with one external power, but by negotiating with all while depending on none.
This is not a retreat from reform.
It is a redefinition of it. Because development does not begin with balance sheets. It begins with the capacity to produce, to feed, and to sustain a population without permanent external dependence.
In this light, the election takes on a different meaning.
It is not simply about who governs.
It is about whether the system can renew itself, or whether it continues to reproduce a structure in which political control and economic dependency reinforce each other.
If the election is not seen as meaningful, it will not stabilize the system.
It will reveal its limits.
The path forward is neither ideological nor dramatic.
It requires abandoning illusions:
That austerity alone can produce growth.
That external alliances can substitute for internal strength.
That political control can replace legitimacy.
What is required instead is a focus on the material foundation of the nation.
Production.
Distribution.
Cohesion.
Without these, no election, however organized, can secure stability.
With them, even imperfect systems can endure and evolve.
Ethiopia stands at a point where adjustment is no longer sufficient.
What is required is transformation.
Not proclaimed.
But built.
Editor’s Note : The article appeared first on Kebour Ghenna’s SM page
__
Join our Telegram Channel : t.me/borkena
To Support Borkena : https://borkena.com/subscribe-borkena/ – one time support or small monthly options available. Inquire information about it : info@borkena.com
Like borkena on Facebook
To submit Press Release, send submission to info@borkena.com
Add your business to Ethiopian Business Listing / Ethiopian Business Directory
Join the conversation. Follow us on X (Formerly Twitter) @zborkena to get the latest Ethiopian News updates regularly.
Excellent and thought provoking article by the brother. This election comes at a moment when there is uncertainty about the fortune of the entire region. Unless there is a lasting truce in the current war between USA/Israel and Iran it is going to jolt the HOA countries from their foundation. We all remember what the 1973 oil embargo did to the old country. It was the last straw for the regime of the late Emperor who ruled the country for more than 40 years followed by a bloodbath that decimated an entire generation. Let’s hope history will not repeat itself.
Precise and commendable insight!
Ato Kibur Gena hulegizem keberulen.
With due respect, the veteran political economist Kebour Ghenna has presented a balanced article. I would like to suggest a few ideas below in line with his call for a free and fair election in Ethiopia.
H.E. Kebour Ghenna is a very practical leader who has consistently advocated for dialogue instead of a bloody civil war between the central government and forces in the Tigray Region.
Based on my observations and follow-up on the election campaign and coordination led by H.E. Melatwork Hailu, Chief of the National Election Board of Ethiopia, I would like to put forward the following suggestions.
Ethiopians have long dreamed of democracy and justice. Millions have sacrificed their lives, endured imprisonment, and gone into exile for this cause. Unfortunately, the outcomes have often been devastating from one regime to another since the departure of Haile Selassie. Although he achieved many remarkable accomplishments, his failure to listen to constructive advice from Ethiopian elites, including his cousin, Prince Ras Imeru, and others, contributed to the concentration of power, which ultimately led to his overthrow by military officers, some of whom he had personally trained.
I have hope and a vision that our nation, Ethiopia, will practice free and fair elections, at least to the standard set by the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights of 1948.
There are also encouraging signs of participation, including involvement from organizations such as the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party, which has historically played a significant role in popular movements advocating for democracy and social justice. While there were shortcomings in the implementation of Marxist ideology, Ethiopia has long-standing indigenous traditions of social cooperation, such as Afersata, Awchacgen, Edir, and the Geda system.
Let us all contribute what we can to achieve a better outcome in the upcoming Ethiopian elections. It is important to work with international observers, as the current Ethiopian government has agreed to comply with election rules and procedures. This cooperation can help address concerns such as interference and harassment reported by participants and help avoid continued cycles of conflict that have prolonged the country’s complex political crisis.
africacenter.org/spotlight/en-elections-2026/ethiopia/
undp.org/ethiopia/projects/electoral-support-project-seeds-2
idea.int/news/strengthening-electoral-integrity-ethiopia-critical-training-ahead-2026-national-election
africacenter.org/spotlight/2024-elections/
Eddie Mekasha, Community Chaplain and Conflict Mediation Expert