Yonas Biru, PhD
To understand the self-destructive cycle of tribal politics in Ethiopia, one must look past rhetoric and examine the underlying mathematical models: Pareto Optimality, the Zero-Sum Game, and the Negative-Sum Game.
The North Star: Pareto Optimality
In economic theory, Pareto Optimality is the “North Star” of efficiency. It represents an environment where resources flow to where they are most valued, and the primary goal is mutual benefit. In this framework, a “win” is defined as an outcome where there is mutual gains at best or at least one group benefits and no one is harmed. The mechanism is compromise, and the goal is an expanding pie. While some groups may gain more than others, the fundamental rule is that no one is left worse off than they were in the status quo. From a society point of view, expanding pie means improved societal welfare without making any group worse off. This is why Pareto Optimal outcomes are seen as a “Positive-Sum Game.”
For Pareto improvements to occur, three conditions are usually needed:
- Credible commitment mechanisms (institutions and rule of law) to enforce cooperative outcomes.
- Shared national identity or minimum consensus.
- Reward or at least no penalty for cooperation.
The Stagnation: Zero-Sum Game
Since the institutionalization of ethnic federalism, several reinforcing dynamics push actors away from Pareto thinking, tilting the nation’s political engagement toward a zero-sum game. A Zero-Sum Game assumes a fixed pie. Here, the gain of one party is achieved only by making another party worse off. It is a game of pure redistribution: one party’s gain is exactly balanced by another party’s loss. There is no growth, only a shifting of the same limited resources between competing groups.
Past injustices are not just remembered—they are actively instrumentalized to fortify identity as a political currency. Political actors gain legitimacy by demonstrating resistance rather than cooperation. Concessions are perceived not as compromise, but as existential loss. Even mutually beneficial deals are viewed as potential traps. This converts politics into a high-stakes contest, not a bargaining arena.
The Abyss: Negative-Sum Game
The most destructive evolution of this conflict—and the one currently defining Ethiopia—is the Negative-Sum Game. This is a self-destructive calculus where the primary objective is no longer your own gain, but maximizing the loss of your adversary.
In a negative-sum game, the total payoff is less than zero. Both sides lose, but the “winner” is simply the one who loses the least—or the one who derives enough psychological satisfaction from the greater suffering of their opponent to justify their own ruin. Each party accepts a personal loss, provided the adversary’s loss is deeper.
Under the negative-sum game paradigm, relative power matters more than absolute welfare. Consequently, political payoffs are tied to humiliation or weakening of rivals. This is manifested in four ways:
- Blocking reforms that would benefit all, if it also strengthens a rival group
- Supporting destabilizing actions if they undermine the perceived enemy
- Preferring political stalemate or even economic decline over adversary gains
- Cooperation is often politically punished as betrayal.
The Ethnic Calculus in Practice
This “spite-driven” logic has defined the last several decades of Ethiopian governance:
The TPLF Era: The Oromo political elite’s calculus was: “We will tolerate your screwing us, as long as you screw the Amhara more.”
The Oromo-PP Era: During the Tigray war, the Amhara political elite’s calculus was: “We are fine with your screwing us, as long as you screw Tigrayans more.”
The Oromo are being ravaged by the current system, but what drives Oromo tribalists’ support to the status quo is the perception that their Amhara adversaries are hurting more.
This also explains the Amhara-Tigray “Alliance Paradox.” Even when it is in their obvious survival interest, they fail to form a robust alliance against a common threat. In their eyes, a Pareto-style compromise—where both might benefit without the other losing—is viewed with suspicion and rejected. They remain locked in a Negative-Sum death spiral, jockeying for a position where they can ensure their adversary is weakened, even if it means they are dragged down into the abyss along with them.
Conclusion
When political actors prioritize the “loss of the adversary” over their own “marginal gain,” they fall into a trap where they would rather be poor in a desert, provided their enemy is also in that desert, than be wealthy in a shared garden.
Ethiopia’s political crisis, therefore, is not merely a contest over power or resources; it is a breakdown in the very logic of collective welfare. When political actors derive utility not from shared gains but from relative advantage—even at absolute loss—the system becomes structurally predisposed to decline. Economic stagnation, institutional erosion, and social fragmentation are not accidental byproducts; they are the predictable outcomes of a negative-sum equilibrium.
Unless the incentive structure is fundamentally altered to reward cooperation over mutual harm, Ethiopia risks remaining trapped in a cycle where every political victory deepens national loss.
To move toward Pareto Optimality in Ethiopia, the political calculus must shift from a “logic of grievance” to a “logic of institutionalism.” This involves creating “Win-Win” scenarios where the protection of one group’s rights is not predicated on the disenfranchisement of another. Without this shift, the system remains stuck in a cycle where the pursuit of the adversary’s ruin ensures the collective ruin of the state.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
__
Join our Telegram Channel : t.me/borkena
To Support Borkena : https://borkena.com/subscribe-borkena/ – one time support or small monthly options available. Inquire information about it : info@borkena.com
Like borkena on Facebook
To submit Press Release, send submission to info@borkena.com
Add your business to Ethiopian Business Listing / Ethiopian Business Directory
Join the conversation. Follow us on X (Formerly Twitter) @zborkena to get the latest Ethiopian News updates regularly.
Tigray is not tribal but an old and civilized nation with its own long history and civilization.Thus reducing Tigray to a tribal status totally wrong. Tigray as the regional power will defend Oromia which is to the Oromo people.
DERG bury Tafari under the toilet because he is a garbage leader like how your opinion is garbage. Shewa makes Ethiopia confused
We all heard the story of Ethiopians waiting judgment at the Pearly Gates with ladder to Heaven and no guards. I am sorry to say it, but it is a perfect description of our culture.