Eng. Abdi Ali Barkad
For more than thirty years, the Republic of Somaliland has stood as one of the most stable, peaceful, and democratic systems in the Horn of Africa. Through internal dialogue, clan-based conflict resolution, democratic elections, and uninterrupted transfers of power, Somaliland has proven itself a functioning and responsible state despite its lack of formal recognition.
However, the last twelve months have marked a coordinated and escalating campaign of destabilization backed by a coalition of foreign powers whose strategic objectives are neither publicly declared nor benevolent. States believed to be central to this campaign include Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Djibouti, China, and the federal government of Somalia (Villa Somalia). Their activities have converged with the aim of weakening Somaliland’s sovereignty and obstructing its pathway toward international recognition.
Sool Region: The First Front
The eastern Sool region, particularly the town of Las Anod, has become a target where a parallel political and military structure has been established under the authority of Mogadishu. While Las Anod has faced heavy pressure, most of the surrounding districts remain under Somaliland’s governance, demonstrating the continued will of the population to maintain Somaliland’s Statehood.
Borama: The Attempted Second Front
The emerging phase of this strategy has shifted to Borama, capital of the Awdal region, where foreign-backed actors have attempted to foment anti-Somaliland sentiment. Instead, the outcome was the opposite: the residents of Awdal overwhelmingly rejected external influence, firmly declaring:
“No to Mogadishu — Viva Somaliland.”
This response was a clear message that Somaliland’s unity and identity are rooted in the population, not imposed by political elites.
The Strategic Motivations Behind the Destabilization
These interventions are not humanitarian, democratic, or reconciliatory in nature. They are part of a multi-layered geopolitical agenda, driven by four primary objectives:
- Reconfiguring Regional Power in the Red Sea
- To block Western allies and Israel from securing long-term influence in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea corridors, among the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.
- Stopping Somaliland’s International Recognition
- Formal recognition of Somaliland would reshape the balance of power in the Horn of Africa, affecting diplomatic, military, and trade alliances.
- Forcing a Single Somali State
- Certain regional actors seek central control over all Somali territories under a single political system centered in Mogadishu, disregarding the 1991 reality and the three-decade state-building of Somaliland.
- Extracting Natural Resources
- Somaliland’s oil, minerals, and strategic coastal access are viewed as assets available for negotiation, extraction, or foreign control should Somaliland be weakened.
A Warning to Western Powers and Strategic Partners
If Western states, Israel, and global maritime stakeholders remain silent, the geopolitical vacuum will be filled by actors whose interests are not aligned with regional stability, democratic governance, counterterrorism, or secure maritime access.
The ongoing destabilization of Somaliland is not merely a local dispute; it is a precursor to a wider reordering of influence in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.
Somaliland’s stability is not only a national asset; it is a buffer protecting international shipping, anti-piracy operations, counter-extremism efforts, and the future balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
It is imperative for the international community to recognize the strategic importance of Somaliland and to stand in solidarity with its people in defending their hard-won sovereignty and stability. The time to act is now, as the future of Somaliland hangs in the balance against these foreign encroachments.
Engineer Abdi Ali Barkhad is a senior consultant. He has also studied international diplomacy and is a political analyst and writer known for his detailed commentary on the politics of the Horn of Africa and international relations. He has published numerous articles analysing current policies in the region and is a strong supporter of the cause of the Republic of Somaliland . He can be reached at: tra50526@gmail.com
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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