
Yonas Biru, PhD
When it comes to sovereign access to the sea, what Ethiopia needs is a dialogue guided by pragmatic realism, not wishful thinking spirited by a kumbaya nirvana. Unfortunately, the Boy King is wallowing between nonsensical rhetoric and hollow saber-rattling. More unfortunate is that the Ethiopian intellectual class is, at best, missing in action or, at worst, swimming in the sea of delusion following the Boy King.
Stripped of its rhetorical froth and fury, the Ethiopian fixation to reclaim the Assab Port represents four doctrines, each with a distinct strand of fantasy that has infiltrated Ethiopia’s national conversation: the Rodney King Doctrine, the Confederation/Federation Doctrine, the ክርስቲያን ተስፋ አይቆርጥም Doctrine, and the By Any Means Necessary Doctrine.
The Rodney King Doctrine
The late Rodney King was a victim of police brutality in the early 1990s. History remembers him for two things. First is the nearly $4 billion economic damage to Los Angeles following the riot sparked by the police brutality Rodney suffered. Over 1,000 buildings—large and small—were damaged or destroyed by fire. Second is his televised statement: “Let Us All Get Along.”
It is in this spirit of naïve goodwill diplomacy that the Boy King is asking the Eritrean government to hand the Assab Port over to Ethiopia in the interest of being nice and getting along with its neighbor. This is akin to Egypt’s demand that Ethiopia willfully relinquish its sovereign access to the Nile waters because Egypt needs it more than Ethiopia. If Ethiopia is rightly rejecting Egypt’s appeal on the basis of moral suasion, on what ground does it expect Eritrea to buy Ethiopia’s appeal on the same basis?
The Confederation/Federation Doctrine
Why would any sovereign nation agree to a confederation or federation arrangement with Ethiopia? Currently, Ethiopia is an economic basket case smeared in political chaos. It is a poor country even by Sub-Saharan African standards. Closer to Ethiopia, Djibouti’s and Kenya’s GDP per capita are three times higher than that of Ethiopia. Who would want to be united with a poor nation whose people are fed by the international community?
A 2023 Afrobarometer poll shows that less than 20% of Eritreans support political merger, while 40% support economic unity. As they say, the devil is in the details. People are likely to be more skeptical when they learn about the political implications.
From an Eritrean perspective, Ethiopia (120 million) versus Eritrea (3.7 million) means any confederation potentially entails Eritrean marginalization. Even in a loose confederation arrangement, Ethiopia’s demographic weight could dominate decision-making. Eritreans remember what happened to the 1952 confederation arrangement that was unilaterally dissolved by Ethiopia in 1962. Why would Eritrea engage in any sovereignty-sharing arrangement and risk the independence it obtained after decades of war?
The ክርስቲያን ተስፋ አይቆርጥም Doctrine
In the best-case scenario, it will take at least three decades to get us out of the current economic meltdown and build a sustainable economy that may attract genuine interest among the Eritrean populace to form some kind of economic unity that could potentially lead to political cooperation. Apart from economic leverage, Ethiopia needs to build trust by establishing democratic institutions and the rule of law.
The By Any Means Necessary Doctrine
Considering current realities, anybody who believes Ethiopia can win a war against Eritrea, maintain its victory, and put Assab to commercial or military use is an utter idiot. Remember, the Boy King promised to wrap up the TPLF war in two weeks. He confidently declared a six-month state of emergency in the Amhara tribal land with a promise to bring Fano to its knees. Oromo Shene, which was supposed to be wiped out in two months, is still wreaking havoc in the Oromo tribal land.
The least the Ethiopian intellectual class can do is focus its attention on reviving the nation’s economy and saving the nation from disintegration. Echoing the deranged Boy King’s fantasy of gaining sovereign access to the sea when the nation is teetering on the verge of collapse is a historic and unforgivable blunder.
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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Well, well, well. One must don intellectual armor to even approach the towering, self-appointed citadel of wisdom that is Dr. Yonas Biru. His latest treatise, “The Assab Issue and the Ethiopian Intellectual Class,” is not so much an analysis as it is a masterclass in pompous condescension, masquerading as pragmatic realism.
Let’s start with the presentation. Dr. Biru, your opening salvo—littered with juvenile insults like “Boy King” and accusations of a “kumbaya nirvana”—isn’t the sharp knife of a political surgeon; it’s the rusty spoon of a grumpy blogger. To position oneself as the lone voice of reason in a sea of delusion is the hallmark of an intellectual ego so bloated it has its own gravitational pull. You speak of the intellectual class “swimming in a sea of delusion,” yet you seem to be doing the backstroke in a sea of your own sanctimony.
Now, let’s cross-check the veracity of your “devastating” doctrines. Your entire piece is built on a foundation of selective facts and flawed analogies.
Your “Rodney King Doctrine” is a rhetorical car crash. To equate a plea for racial harmony after a brutal police beating with complex international diplomacy is not just intellectually lazy, it’s grotesque. You ask, “on what ground does it expect Eritrea to buy Ethiopia’s appeal?” You conveniently ignore that Ethiopia is not, in fact, just asking to “get along.” It is a nation of 120 million people landlocked by a colonial treaty, making an argument for economic survival and regional integration—a point you later dismiss, but which is the actual core of the debate, not your straw-man “niceness.”
Your “Confederation/Federation Doctrine” is equally shaky. You scoff, “Who would want to be united with a poor nation?” reducing the profound, historical, and demographic intricacies of Horn of Africa politics to a simple GDP-per-capita spreadsheet. This is not pragmatism; it’s simplistic arrogance. You cite an Afrobarometer poll, a worthy source, but then immediately undermine it with your own speculative “devil in the details,” presuming to know what Eritreans really think once they learn the “political implications”—as if they are children and you are the only adult in the room.
Most egregious is your “By Any Means Necessary” section, where you declare anyone believing in a military solution an “utter idiot.” A strong, if unprofessional, opinion. But your evidence? A list of the Prime Minister’s failed military promises. So, because a leader has failed in internal conflicts, it is therefore impossible for the nation to ever succeed in a conventional war? This isn’t logic; it’s a post-hoc fallacy dressed up in a lab coat and a “PhD.” You present no analysis of the actual military balance, regional alliances, or geopolitical realities. You simply mock and call names, which is the very “nonsensical rhetoric” you claim to despise.
Dr. Biru, your article is a monument to your own perceived enlightenment. You have not offered a sober analysis; you have thrown a condescending tantrum, packaging personal grievance and partisan contempt as high-minded intellectualism. The true “historic and unforgivable blunder” here is not the discussion of sea access, but the belief that such a complex national issue can be solved by sneering from an ivory tower. Perhaps instead of diagnosing the delusions of others, you should check the ego fueling your own.
” you should check the ego fueling your own ” that statement describes the DNA of Yonas Biru .Nothing in your analysis related to Historical issues percolating around
The psychopathic episodes experienced by certain recent leaders and segments of society since 1974 (particularly during key events in 1991 with the TPLF and 2018 with the Oromo) reflect a collective inability to understand and address the root causes of their issues. This phenomenon, which has become increasingly common since the 1990s, occurs primarily within the individual brain—manifesting as groupthink. Unfortunately, the blame is often misdirected at individuals who are not connected to these personal psychopathic episodes, leaving the true solutions to their problems unaddressed.
For instance, President Biden fell off his bike while attempting to speak to reporters, prompting Abiy to express concern, saying, “My heart jumped into my throat” upon hearing about the incident. When questioned about the killings of innocent civilians in the Oromo region, Abiy responded, “More people are killed in Chicago every day, so the killings here are not unique.”
But the followup question “Why these killings, displacements started after you took office in 2018, and never happened after the initial LAND-GRAB 1991/92/92 by TPLF in Begemeder (Wolkait) & in Wello (Rayya) and the displacement that followed ?” were never asked.
The answer is SIMPLE & is pocking us in the eye consistently ( as these killings happen repeatedly ) ‘LAW AND ORDER’ vanished since 2018, and those HELPED to POWER found OUT, look the OTHER WAY to be BENEFICIAL, to APPEASE their VOTING constituent so that they stay in POWER indefensibly.
Similarly, Trump advocates for stopping violence in Ukraine by demanding Russia ceasefire, yet he simultaneously sends bombs to Gaza and Ukraine and prepares for military actions in Venezuela, sinking multiple fishing vessels in Venezuelan waters. He bombed Iran in support of Israel and threatened actions against Nigeria while welcoming a new Syrian leader known for persecuting Christians. The common thread connecting Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Russia, and Syria is oil, yet he labels himself “the Peace President.”
Here’s the stark truth: if those considered “enemies” in the Oromo region vanished overnight, or if the TPLF eliminated all perceived foes, or if Israel and the U.S. achieved all their desires for control over land and oil, none would find true happiness. Their problems were never external.
In the words of a leading brain scientist,
“Your brain is lying to you! Here’s how I discovered the truth!”
link = youtube.com/watch?v=hQaN5w3YwtM
Our average lifespan of 70 to 80 years is but a blink. Life is meant for experiences, not accumulation. Those who left pyramids in the desert didn’t intend to stay longer—they left no record of what they looked like. In a few decades or centuries, no one will remember our existence or the misery we may have caused since Columbus’s time, ‘discovering’ the ‘new world’.
Imagine a world where AI and robots take away the joy of engaging in meaningful creative endeavors. Without the necessity for human involvement, we may find ourselves searching for purpose from sunrise to sunset, much like tools left idle in a shed (in the winter).
While many will undoubtedly (‘occupy’ themselves) find creative ways to lead rewarding lives through self-directed interests (to replace their ‘wage earning’ days activities (doing what they were told)); but what will become of those whose inner turmoil drives them incessantly (in autopilot), like a “zombie apocalypse” echoing in their minds 24/7, all year round?
Have you noticed, people call /pray to “God’ when they are trouble, or on Sunday (or on the day their religion set aside). In the ‘Holly Land’ “God’ (Allah) is called before & after any ACTION taken or received, but no response, that is because, once you bought /took position of OWNERSHIP of the CAR, AIRPLANE, HAMMER… its up to you to USE IT appropriately & safely, the mechanic (maker) is not going to STEP IN, when you FORGOT steer the wheel, hit the brake, Pilot (enough gas, road condition, destination direction, land or park… etc) FOR YOU; you are given full ‘RESPONSIBILITY’, IN ALL MATTERS.
Once a DEVELOPER packaged the ‘COMPUTER GAME’, how the GAME is PLAYED & how long the PLAY GOES & HOW it ENDS is completely up to the PLAYER.
As far as the DEVELOPER is concerned the GAME is A CREATIVE endeavor, nothing MORE. How the STORY goes is strictly up to the PLAYER, NOTHING goes in NOTHING comes out.
‘At first there was NOTHING.’
Be well.
CREDIT:
AI
“This version clarifies the main points while maintaining the original message’s intent. Let me know if there are specific aspects you want adjusted further!”
‘ORIGINAL’ message : (with today’s date)
Link = https://borkena.com/2025/11/05/ethiopia-war-preneurship-abiys-obvious-policy/
Be well