Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
By Simon Stefanos Lijam
Executive Summary
In 2024, Ethiopia and Russia signed agreements expanding cooperation in nuclear energy and naval defense. Both governments present these deals as developmental, but Ethiopia’s enduring political fragility, unresolved internal conflicts, and strained relations with its neighbors make such projects especially risky. These agreements may worsen instability in the Horn of Africa and undermine Russia’s credibility in Africa.
Key finding: Absent regional safeguards, Russia’s naval and nuclear cooperation with Ethiopia is reckless and risks being viewed as a form of negligence with predictable civilian and regional consequences.
Background
Ethiopia’s Fragility: For over fifty years, Ethiopia has cycled through authoritarian rule, ethnic conflict, and humanitarian crises. Active violence in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia continues to displace millions (Council on Foreign Relations, 2024).
Russian Engagement: In September 2024, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed met with President Vladimir Putin, announcing expanded cooperation in nuclear energy, energy projects, and military technology (Kremlin, 2024).
Naval Agreement: Ethiopia and Russia signed a naval cooperation pact in 2024, signaling Moscow’s broader push into Red Sea security (Fanamc, 2024; ICDS, 2023; ICWA, 2024).
Risks and Implications
Domestic Risks
Ethiopia lacks the institutional capacity to regulate nuclear facilities or protect naval assets.
New agreements risk empowering factions, aggravating ethnic conflict, and diverting resources from humanitarian relief.
Regional Risks
Naval ambitions may alarm neighbors such as Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia.
Disputes over Red Sea access could spill into broader Horn of Africa instability.
Global Risks
Militarization in Ethiopia may entrench great-power competition in a fragile region, raising risks for Red Sea maritime security and global trade.
Russia’s reputation as a cautious African partner may erode if cooperation destabilizes its allies.
Policy Options
- Restraint in Bilateral Deals
Russia should pause or scale down nuclear and naval initiatives until Ethiopia demonstrates improved stability and governance.
Ethiopia should prioritize peacebuilding and security-sector reform over new militarization.
- Continental Framework
Reframe nuclear and naval projects as African Union initiatives rather than bilateral ventures.
Regional distribution (e.g., one project per African region) would spread benefits and reduce political risk.
- Continental Security Protection
Facilities should be secured by an AU protection force, insulated from global rivalries.
Neutrality, rotation across regions, and rights-based rules of engagement are critical safeguards.
Recommendations
For Ethiopia:
Suspend sensitive military and nuclear cooperation until peace agreements are consolidated.
Rebuild trust with neighbors before advancing Red Sea or naval ambitions.
For Russia:
Return to a cautious, non-escalatory Africa policy.
Avoid initiatives that risk inflaming conflict within friendly states.
For the African Union:
Lead in designing continental frameworks for strategic projects.
Ensure accountability, transparency, and neutrality in any nuclear or naval initiative
Conclusion
Russia’s naval and nuclear agreements with Ethiopia may appear ambitious, but under current conditions they risk worsening Ethiopia’s instability, straining regional relations, and undermining continental security. Without continental ownership, regional safeguards, and insulated protection mechanisms, such projects remain reckless gambles that could do more harm than good.
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References
Council on Foreign Relations. (2024). Conflict in Ethiopia. Global Conflict Tracker. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ethiopia
Fanamc. (2024, September 12). Ethiopian and Russian navies sign cooperation agreement. https://www.fanamc.com/english/ethiopian-russian-navies-signcooperation-agreement/
International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS). (2023, June 26). Russia and the Red Sea since 2022: Militarised foreign policy or strategy of conflict?
https://icds.ee/en/russia-and-the-red-sea-since-2022-militarised-foreign-policyor-strategy-of-conflict
Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA). (2024, February 16). Russia’s new naval ambitions in the Red Sea. https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php? lang=1&level=1&ls_id=13073&lid=7980
Kremlin. (2024, September 3). Meeting with Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy
Ahmed. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78072
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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Great points!
But misleading, ‘peer-think’ (3 letter brainwash/influences) & WOKE in nature.
FYI,
– Ethiopia had a NAVY የኢትዮጵያ ባህር ኃይል, since 1955 – 1996; way before OAU (AU) existed… ( Imagine, “Ethio-Eretrian NAVY 2026” )
– There are ONLY 3 – 4 African Countries on RED Sea. AU run Eth. NAVY, really ???
– We shouldn’t have built GERD without AU ownership/oversight… ADWA without AU, but AU DIDN’T EXIST, 1800s?
– Ethiopian Airlines, Eth. Air Force , Eth, Army without AU involvement…? – It appears,we Ethiopians have been braking a lot of WOKE-‘norms’ for over 5000 years, (who knew…).
To top it all off:
– “Without continental ownership”
– What the heck, let us transfer 4-kilo ( Ethiopia) to AU, EU style.. BOTH AU & EU ( like their OLDER uncle UN are a Globalist-creation institutions that begun with UN 80 years ago; meaning they are TOOLS by & for Western Globalist use to WREAK HAVOC in every corner of the GLOB; (‘Divide & Rule’: GAZA, Middle East, Ukraine, Ethiopia, Nepal, and soon Iran (2nd round building up) etc, etc., etc…).
All these citations list, only shows the ‘peer’-think (‘dumb & dumber’), not FACT based.
I gave the above for AI , to play with…:
“Great Points!
I would like to share some insights regarding Ethiopia’s historical and contemporary geopolitical context:
1) Ethiopia’s Naval History:
– Ethiopia had a navy, known as የኢትዮጵያ ባህር ኃይል, from 1955 to 1996. This was well before the Organization of African Unity (OAU), now the African Union (AU), was established. This historical fact highlights Ethiopia’s long-standing maritime capabilities.
2) Geopolitical Landscape of the Red Sea:
– There are only 3 to 4 African countries bordering the Red Sea. Given this limited access, one must question the role of the AU in managing the Ethiopian Navy in this strategic region. What is the AU’s involvement in ensuring the security and sovereignty of these nations?
3) Ownership of Major Projects:
– The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was constructed without AU ownership or oversight ($$$s). Similarly, the historical victory at Adwa occurred BEFORE AU was created ( maybe we should have waited) .
This raises important questions about the necessity of continental ownership in significant national projects.
4) National Institutions and AU Involvement:
– Ethiopian Airlines, the Ethiopian Air Force, and the Ethiopian Army have all operated independently of AU involvement. This independence may reflect a broader trend of Ethiopia breaking away from what some might consider “woke” norms that emphasize continental governance.
5) Continental Ownership and Global Institutions:
– The phrase “without continental ownership” resonates deeply in this context. It prompts us to consider whether we should transfer certain responsibilities to the AU, similar to the European Union model. However, we must be cautious, as both the AU and EU are perceived by some as globalist institutions that have roots in the United Nations, established 80 years ago. Critics argue that these organizations can serve as tools for Western globalists, often leading to chaos in various regions, including Gaza, the Middle East, Ukraine, Ethiopia, Nepal, and Iran.
In conclusion, it is essential to critically assess the role of continental organizations like the AU in relation to national sovereignty and the historical context of nations like Ethiopia. We must navigate these complex dynamics carefully to ensure that our national interests are preserved while engaging with broader continental and global frameworks.
I am glad Ethiopia achieved many great things (a few of them I listed) in it long & INDEPENDENT history, in various fields before modern Science existed… & before we were awashed with all these ‘know it all’ (influenced) ‘peer-think’ PhD’s.
– Apologizes for the real PhD’s (none ‘candidates’).
Be well.
When on has nothing (resources) of its own, waiting for OUT SIDE help (like AU) might be the alternative (for the defeated) …
But where one has everything it needs and more, and is unable to HELP ITSELF, and is looking out-side HELP it is a tragedy. Ethiopia with huge fertile LAND and more than enough WATER, many go hungry & some are fed by external donors like world food program (WFP), thanks to the TPLF dimwits (where war is their solution for hunger).
Here is Egypt trying to expand its food production by taming its desert.
Link = youtube.com/watch?v=1aQutbZq0v0
I am sure the author wont approve, (perhaps suggesting AU should do these things…& they should wait!)
It is always assumed, observing how nature works, the next generation would be better in adopting to conditions using critical thinking (evolution), but lately, general observation suggest that there is a erosion occurring in that old idea of evolution (perhaps temporary phenomenon, caused environmental, due to covid-19-vax, WEF brainwash ( ‘you own nothing & be happy’), conventional facts replaced by ‘convenient-naratives’, ‘alternative-facts’, etc. )
We even learnt recently, former Israeli PM N. Benet told us, Israel had established a “Wikipedia”-cleaning -FORCE to wash it CLEAN off anti Jewish sentiments (on YT)… they seem to be attempting to do with ‘TikTok’ used by US citizens to be owned by USA & “algorithm-cleand” to white wash GAZA related videos… at the request of Israel.
There was even a fight-for-the-minds the new generation, as to who WON WWII (defeated NAZI Germany, & Imperial Japan) as the 80th anniversary remembrance events in 3 different locations, Europe, Moscow, & last in Beijing on Sept 3rd 2025.
I wonder how world history books of the future be based on, facts or fiction…including our own.
Be well