Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
By Mohamud A. Ahmed – Cagaweyne
A Living Example: ONLF and the Illusion of Eritrean Patronage
History often leaves behind undeniable lessons, and ONLF itself is a testament to the consequences of relying on external backers who ultimately prioritize their own interests over the movements they claim to support. For 27 years, Eritrea provided ONLF with sanctuary and assistance in its war against the TPLF-led EPRDF, but when Isaias Afwerki decided it was in his best interest to sign peace with Ethiopia, ONLF was not given a choice – it was told to sign a peace agreement, hastily crafted and devoid of strategic depth.
That moment exposed an undeniable truth: ONLF was never the master of its fate under Eritrean sponsorship. Eritrea used ONLF as a tool of leverage against Ethiopia, and when the geopolitical winds shifted, it abandoned ONLF without hesitation. The so-called peace agreement, though not strategically planned by ONLF, gave the Somali Region an invaluable golden moment – an opportunity to transition from insurgency to legitimate governance.
The question is: why would ONLF, knowing the cost of external dependency, now contemplate another gamble with Eritrea or any other regional power? The Somali Region cannot afford another miscalculation. It must learn from its own past and recognize that its destiny is not in the hands of foreign actors but in its ability to position itself within Ethiopia as a decisive and influential political force.
Eritrea’s Geopolitical Strategy: A Cycle of Disposable Allies
Eritrea’s political playbook is well-documented. It does not form partnerships based on ideological alignment, nor does it support movements out of solidarity. It engages only in transactional relationships, offering temporary backing to insurgent groups as long as they serve its interests. The moment those interests change, former allies become expendable.
This is precisely what happened to ONLF in 2018. As soon as Isaias Afwerki saw an opportunity to re-establish relations with Ethiopia’s federal government, ONLF was no longer useful to him. The choice given to ONLF was not a choice at all – it was an ultimatum: sign the peace agreement or lose all support. This was not a negotiation; it was an imposition, proving that movements that depend on external patrons will always be subject to their whims.
ONLF cannot afford to repeat this mistake. If it were to once again seek refuge in Asmara or align itself with Isaias Afwerki’s geopolitical ambitions, it would be walking into the same trap – except this time, it would not even have the leverage it once had. The Somali Region has already moved forward, embracing political participation, economic development, and long-term governance. Returning to Eritrea would not be a move toward resurgence; it would be a step toward irrelevance.
A Golden Moment That Cannot Be Squandered
The past seven years have proven that ONLF and the Somali Region have far more to gain from engaging with Ethiopia’s political structure than from fighting against it. The Somali Region has achieved political representation, economic investment, and a growing voice within Ethiopia’s federal system. This is not a system to be abandoned – it is one to be shaped.
Although the containment strategy employed by the Prosperity Party (PP) to neutralize ONLF’s influence may have failed miserably, frustration should not drive ONLF toward strategic miscalculations. The party’s political marginalization, coupled with internal fragmentation, has understandably bred discontent. However, frustration is a dangerous fuel – it can either ignite a resurgence of political wisdom or lead to catastrophic missteps. ONLF must resist the temptation of reactive decisions, particularly the lure of aligning with geopolitical actors whose interests do not align with the long-term aspirations of the Somali Region.
It is never too late to recalibrate. ONLF still has a chance to reclaim its relevance through smart, calculated moves rather than emotional reactions. The mistakes of the past seven years can be corrected, but only if ONLF recognizes that the real battle is not against Dr. Abiy Ahmed or Ethiopia’s federal structure – it is against political irrelevance. The Somali Region has already tested what it can achieve through peaceful engagement. Walking away from that path would be an irreversible setback, and ONLF must now think in decades, not in days.
Why Now? Because the Future Demands It
ONLF must ask itself: why, after seeing the consequences of external dependency, would it consider repeating history? The future of the Somali Region is now within its own hands. It has tested what it can achieve through peaceful means, and it is on the path to securing its rightful place in Ethiopia’s political structure. The next 75 years of this century belong to those who plan, not those who react.
ONLF must recognize that aligning with Eritrea – or any other geopolitical actor with no real stake in the Somali Region’s future – is a false choice. Eritrea’s strategy is not about empowering ONLF; it is about using it as leverage against Ethiopia. The Somali Region cannot afford to be a pawn in someone else’s geopolitical chess game. It must chart its own course.
The opportunity is clear. ONLF must not return to a cycle of dependency on external forces that have already abandoned it once before. Instead, it must embrace the reality that its influence will be determined not by foreign alliances but by its ability to shape Ethiopia’s federal landscape from within. This century is for those who build, those who integrate, and those who own their political futures. ONLF must recognize that it is no longer a movement of resistance – it is a movement of governance, and its future is in Ethiopia, not in the hands of distant geopolitical gamblers.
A New Political Reality: The Somali Region’s Shared Future in Ethiopia
While it would be naïve to suggest that the Somali Region has reached a political honeymoon in Ethiopia’s shared future, it is equally disingenuous to dismiss the relative autonomy that has existed in the last seven years. With all its flaws, and despite the regional power struggles that still persist, there has been a noticeable shift towards self-rule and a reduction in central intervention under Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s tenure. If anything, the federal government’s hands-off approach has provided the Somali Region with an opportunity to shape its governance without the overt interference that defined previous administrations.
Yes, the Somali Region’s fate is still interconnected with the federal political sphere, and there are moments where the region’s political ambitions could be stalled or stunned by national realities. But even within these challenges, there has been room for dialogue – however difficult or slow it may be. And if history teaches us anything, it is that dialogue, no matter how tough, remains the only viable path forward. The alternative – conflict, foreign dependency, or political self-sabotage – only serves to weaken the region’s standing.
The true peril does not stem from Dr. Abiy Ahmed himself but rather from those within his orbit who profess loyalty while simultaneously stoking division, either out of self-interest or sheer confusion about how to navigate the complex political quagmire outside the Prosperity Party (PP). Some mistakenly believe they can resolve this intricate power struggle through outdated traditional mechanisms that, instead of offering solutions, only exacerbate the crisis. These political arsonists – whether opportunists or misguided actors – are the ones actively working to destabilize the Somali Region, turning it into a battleground for their own ambitions. ONLF must keenly differentiate between Dr. Abiy’s broader federal strategy and the disruptive agendas of those seeking to exploit Ethiopia’s volatile political landscape. If the Somali Region is to shape its future for the next 75 years, it must steer clear of these destabilizing forces and remain committed to a vision that prioritizes sustainable governance over short-term power plays.
Conclusion: A Scholar’s Call for a 75-Year Blueprint
Though I have never been a member of ONLF, my perspective is deeply shaped by the sacrifices of the freedom fighters before me – including my own father, whose entire life was devoted to seeing the dawn of a new era for the Somali Region. He departed this world with the hope that one day, the vision of self-determination and dignity he fought for would materialize. That hope, that longing, is now at a crossroads, and as a scholar and writer, I see this moment not just as a political shift but as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to shape the destiny of the Somali Region in ways that have eluded generations before us.
For the first time, the region has a chance to move beyond the cycle of resistance and reactionary politics and lay the foundation for a 75-year blueprint that prioritizes stability, economic empowerment, and meaningful self-governance within Ethiopia. But with every great opportunity comes a formidable risk. The most dangerous threats to this vision are not just external forces, but internal obstacles – those who remain trapped in outdated, low-level thinking, who cling to misguided patriotism that serves no practical purpose, and who allow personal ambitions to eclipse collective progress. These are the very elements that have repeatedly sabotaged the Somali Region’s advancement, and if left unchecked, they will once again derail its future.
It is for this reason that I have allowed my pen to ink what is perhaps my strongest advocacy for peace, a new strategic framework, and a call to action. The Somali Region cannot afford another lost century. If it is to take its rightful place in Ethiopia’s shared future, it must do so with clarity, discipline, and an unwavering commitment to long-term prosperity. This is not just about securing the present; it is about ensuring that the next three generations inherit a region defined by stability, opportunity, and leadership – not one shackled by the ghosts of unresolved conflicts.
The writer can be reached at : +251900644648
Editor’s Note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
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