 13th Conference - Conference Report. Read and share your remarks.){kind=link}
Forum for Ethiopian Scholars and Professionals
September 10, 2024
The Board of the Forum for Ethiopian Scholars and Professionals (FESP) wishes all Ethiopians a happy and peaceful New Year and is pleased to release this short report and the unedited videos of its 13th conference. The conference was organized, in a colloquium form, in partnership with the Network of Ethiopian Scholars (NES-Global). The dates were August 3&4, 2024, and the colloquium was held virtually. The theme was
“political culture & the challenges of transition” (ጥልቅ ውይይት ስለፖለቲካ ባህልና የሽግግር ፈተናዎች). The colloquium was preceded by two rounds of calls for papers. To reach the wider Ethiopian public, the presentations were made in the Amharic language. We thank Dr. Kone Fiseha of Fairfax University for helping us with the technology and Miss Reyot Alemu of Mengizem Media for transmitting the proceedings “as is.”
There were eleven presentations, and the total length of the videos is about eight and half hours. The papers dealt with governance, economic consequences of the civil wars, international law & landlocked-ness, and alternative and transitional justice. Two speakers, Dr. Mahemud Eshetu and Dr. Abu Girma, were not able to present due to unforeseen problems. Dr. Mahemud’s paper entitled “Swimming Against the Current: Ethiopia’s Quest for Access to the Red Sea Under International Law, is published in a peer reviewed journal (Fordham International Law Journal). The abstract of Dr. Abu’s
presentation, which focused on economic transition, is included in this report. Three presentations dealt with the thorny issue of political transition.
There were two invited speakers. The August 3 speaker was Professor Mesfin Genanaw, Professor & Chair, Department of Accounting, Houston Community College, and Visiting Professor, University of Houston. Professor Mesfin, using poems, presented a paper entitled “Reflections on the evolution, fracture, and failure of Ethiopia’s elite political culture: An educator’s perspective.” The August 4 speaker was Professor Mammo Muchie, Research Professor at the Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa. The title of his presentation was “Development, ethnicity, innovation & the competition for power/scarce resources in Ethiopia: A Pan- African Perspective.” Professor Mammo underscored the importance of bringing back ubuntu (ይሉኝታ) to the culture of Ethiopia’s political elite. The messages of both speakers complemented one another and underscored the need for a new dialogue on transition.
The Master of Ceremonies was Dr. Yohannes Zeleke, Archeologist and Research Associate, Smithsonian Institute, Washington D.C. In his opening remarks Dr. Yohannes noted Ethiopia’s failed transitions and underscored that scholars and professionals should continue to engage with the thorny issue of transition until the country’s political elite gets it right. Scholars and professionals cannot be silent when the country is faced with multiple challenges, Dr. Yohannes emphasized. He remarked that over its long history of Statehood Ethiopia has had kings, queens, presidents and prime ministers that came from various parts of the country, but did not have an accountable government.
Professor Minga Negash of MSU Denver and the University of the Witwatersrand (Johannesburg) open the colloquium. He indicated the that 13th conference was planned to be held in the first week of January 2024, in partnership with the Institute of Ethiopian Studies (IES) of Addis Ababa University. The conference was postponed on account of the August 4, 2023, State of Emergency. Like Dr. Yohannes, Professor Minga underscored that transition has been on the agenda of FESP for nearly a decade. He indicated that over 250 people, including the late Professor Mesfin Wolde Mariam, Ambassador Dr. Kassa Kebede, Ato Zewde Muleta, and Dr. Mulat Demeke, and W/o Meskerem Abera, who is now a political prisoner, have delivered papers that relate to transition at FESP/VE forums.
Notwithstanding the abundance of publicly available resources on transition, Ethiopia is undergoing through a series of complex ethnoreligious conflicts and economic crisis. To complicate matters the Greater Horn of Africa Region is in deep trouble. Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea respectively rank 1st, 2nd, 3rd,12th and 26th in the Fund for Peace 2024 Fragile States Index. As the fragility of the Horn of Africa States continue, the geopolitical dynamics have also changed, resurrecting colonial era Egyptian and Turkish aspirations over the Nile basin and the maritime choke points on the Red Sea. Hence, rethinking political culture and post conflict transition in the context of the emerging geopolitical dynamics is an appropriate and time sensitive theme for the 13th conference, Professor Minga underscored.
Consistent with the literature, in this colloquium political culture is defined as “the beliefs, opinions, and emotions of the citizens toward their form of government” and the term “transition” is defined as “change or shift from one state, subject, place, to another.” The United Nations documents that “national dialogue” is an instrument for resolving “political crises and lead countries into political transitions.” More than two and half years have passed since the establishment of the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission. Unfortunately, the guns have not been fully silenced. Hence, a new discourse on political culture & transition has become imperative.
Below please find the edited synopsis of the presentations and the links to the videos. Please note that the intellectual property rests on the authors/speakers and the FESP has endeavored to provide an independent forum. Notwithstanding these, the FESP does not endorse or oppose a particular position or viewpoint, research result, or statement. It is up to the user of the information to examine, understand, and interpret the messages.
SESSION ONE
Date: Saturday, August 3, 2024
Session Theme:
Political culture in the HPD (humanitarian, peace & development) nexus.
Speaker #1
Dr. Wuhibegezer Ferede, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and International Studies, Bahir Dar University, Ethiopia. “Revisiting the National Political Reform in Ethiopia.”
Synopsis
The main aim of this study is to evaluate the 2018 national reform and its institutionalization. To achieve this goal, a sequential mixed approach is adopted for data collection and analysis. The primary data is collected using a structured questionnaire from 2,116 employees of federal, regional, and city administration offices. An additional 30 key informant interviews and 22 focus group discussions are conducted to further support the survey. The survey data is also collected from Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and Somali regional states, in addition to Addis Ababa. Secondary sources, including published materials and reports about the reform, were also consulted. The qualitative approach was used to assess the current national reform in terms of its nature, substance, legitimacy, and future orientation, while the quantitative approach was used to examine the level of institutionalization. The findings of the study revealed that the reform suffers from a lack of contextual consideration, a gradualist non-sequential reform approach, a lack of consensus on the reform agenda, and a lack of government capacity for enforcing which exposed it to ex-post constraints of reversal. The paper recommends the need for critical revision and charting out new efficacious institutionalization before the upcoming election.
Speaker #2
Ato Kefale Beyazen, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Political Science & International Relations, Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia. “The Economic Implications of Civil War in Ethiopia: A focus on Post-2018 Internal Conflicts.”
Synopsis
This research explored the economic implications of the civil war in Ethiopia, with a specific focus on the post-2018 internal conflicts. The main research questions employed to address the objective were: What were the causes of the civil war and how did it affect national economic activities? A mixed-methods approach combining qualitative and quantitative research methods was employed. The qualitative component involves in-depth interviews with key stakeholders, including government officials and ordinary citizens. These interviews showed subjective experiences, perspectives, and narratives related to the economic effects of the civil war in Ethiopia. Thematic analysis was utilized to identify recurring themes, patterns, and interrelationships within the qualitative data.
Data were collected using both primary and secondary sources from February 30 to April 25, 2024. The study found that civil war and internal conflicts had substantially impacted Ethiopia, GDP growth with nearly a loss of 26% of the country’s GDP, raised the cost of living as 59% of this loss was on agriculture that feeds the population, burdening the country with a total of $54.7 billion of both foreign and local debts, of which $29 billion is foreign debt, and drained investment following the suspension from AGOA. The disruption of economic activities led to a decline in overall economic output as GDP growth dropped to 2% in 2021, which was the lowest in more than two decades in the country’s history.
Speaker #3
Ato Eyob Esatu Bura, Executive Director, Organization for Innovation and Sustainable Development Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. “Alternative and Transitional Justice Measures: Identifying Policy Gaps and Opportunities for Building Sustainable Peace and Stability in Post-Conflict Ethiopia.”
Synopsis
The major objective of this study is to identify the policy gaps, challenges and opportunities for alternative and transitional justice measures implementation exploring innovative aproaches to promote accountability and reconciliation in post conflict setting that would maintain sustainable peace and stability in post conflict Ethiopia. The methodologies used are qualitative methods of data collection and data analysis. Interviews and focus group discussion were held with various stakeholders and local actors including youth/women associations were consulted to garner adequate and relevant data. The indication for the de jure effect of the transitional justice is that it lacks clear roadmap for Ethiopia for reconciliation and sustainable peace of the country.
Discussion and Q&A
Professor Worku Abera, Professor & Chair, Department of Economics, Dawson College, Quebec, Canada discussed the papers by Ato Kefale and commented on Dr. Mahemud paper. Professor Worku used data from the World Bank to demonstrate trends and questioned the the claims of the government about the health of the economy. Almost all
macroeconomic, fiscal, inflation, and exchange rate trends were declining sharply in recent years. He also questioned whether reforms that are based on IMF conditionalities are solution for the ills of the nation.
During the Q&A session the discussion was enriched further. Whether a meaningful election can be done in a “state capture” phenomenon, how to transition ethnic/regional parties into country-wide parties, whether the estimation of the damage caused by the civil wars could be improved by using opportunity costs (ECG type models), the link between GDP growth rate and inflation rate tolerance level, and whether incumbernt regimes can claim jurisdicational sovereignity over internationally recognized atrocity crimes (genocide, war crime, ethnic cleansing, serious human right violations) were identified as areas that need further examination.
The session chair for the August 3, 2024, colloquium was Dr. Abate Getahun, an Associate Professor of Languages and Communication, Wollo University, and General Manager of ARRFO and Job Creation Advisor, Addis Ababa. The closing remarks for the session were provided by Dr. Mesfin Mirotchie of Statistics Canada, Ontario, Canada.
Links to video
FESP YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/v9_z3w_BiQ8
Mengizem media (please ignore adverts)
Part I : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7cnrECE0sk&t=29s Part II: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDhtPgpgLEU&t=669s
SESSION TWO
Date: Sunday, August 4, 2024
Session Theme: Resetting the dialogue and discussion of the varieties of post conflict transitions.
The session chair started the presentations with remarks regarding transition and FESP’s previous works on the topic. He raised basic (textbook type) questions and asked the conditions that necessitate and/or spark political transition. He reminded the audience that between April 2018 and now over one million people have perished in the Tigray war alone (Olusegun Obasanjo Nov 19, 2022), the permanent cessation of hostilities agreement (COHA) is fragile, new armed conflict has emerged in second most populus region of Amhara, and the conflict in Oromia region has persisted. The intensity of the conflicts varies but they are both vertical and horizontal. The country is facing crisis in multiple (climate, economy, governance, humanitarian, peace, and security) fronts. Added to the domestic problems is the emerging geopolitical dynamics in the Greater Horn of Africa Region where geopolitical tensions are creating new alliances/counter alliances and opportunities for invasion and proxy wars. Below please find the synopsis of Dr. Abu Girma and the names and the titles of the three presentations. There are a few transition plans that are being proposed by individuals and groups. The three presentations are examples and demonstrate the varieties and contextuality of transitions. Since they are “position papers” FESP did not review the documents. Two of the three documents are in the public domain.
Speaker #1 (not in the videos)
Dr. Abu Girma, Associate Professor of Economics University of Tsukuba (Japan), former Vice President of the Ethiopian Economic Association. “Ethiopia: On Economic Transition to Sustainable and Inclusive Development.”
Synopsis
The Ethiopian economy is currently in deep crisis. The level of economic underdevelopment coupled with failure to initiate robust and shared economic growth, high and expanding unemployment of resources, prevalence of abject poverty, noticeable increase in inequality of income and opportunity, over dependence on crisis prone agriculture, unsustainable fiscal and public debt situation, worsening external economic and payment positions are but some of the typical barometers of the state and performance of the Ethiopian economy. Furthermore, the political and security environment in which the economy operates has given rise to massive destructions and disruptions, rapid erosion in an already weak capital stock of the economy leading the economy into a state of desperate struggle for survival. It is from such a background that this presentation focuses on economic transition and necessary policy reforms towards sustainable and inclusive economic development prospects. It sketches a framework model that takes into consideration the critical economic forces upon which the country could employ to initiate, sustain, and consolidate robust economic growth. The presentation develops a theoretical-cum-empirical argument on the prudence and necessity of a bold economic policy shift to unleash the power of private sector driven market forces towards broad based, inclusive, and efficient allocation of the critical resources in the system. Finally, it sets the argument from the perspectives of the major sectoral framework of the household and corporate private sectors, the public sector, and the external economy to examine the roles and constraints faced by the four decision making units of the national economy in an open macroeconomy perspective.
Speaker #2
Ato Lidetu Ayalew, Former Member of the House of Peoples Representatives (Federal Parliament) of Ethiopia. “Transition: What type and process? Why & how?” The document is available here
Speaker #2
Professor Berhanu Abegaz, Professor of Economics, College of William and Mary, VA and Ato Samuel Habte, Chairperson of Congress of Ethiopian Civic Associations (CECA). “A Citizen-Centered Roadmap for Systemic Political Transition in Ethiopia.” The document is available here
Speaker #3
Professor Achamyeleh Debela, Professor of Art and Computer Graphics, North Carolina Central University, and Professor Getachew Metaferia, Professor of Political Science at Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD. “Ethiopia’s evolving crisis: A scenario-based roadmap for transition.” Interested person(s) can directly request a copy from the authors.
Links to video
FESP YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8c_PqVnRDeA&t=46s Mengizem Media (please ignore the adverts)
Part III: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5iLBDOPvpQ&t=338s Part IV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=318mlYYG-_k&t=241s
The session chair was Professor Minga Negash. Dr. Yohannes Zeleke provided the vote of thanks and closed the colloquium.
The takeaways from the colloquium
(1) Ethiopian policy makers, social and political actors, as well as media owners must realize that the nature of the Ethiopian civil war is ethnoreligious. The solution must be contextual and apply tried and tested methods.
(2) A comprehensive, countrywide, permanent, and transparent cession of hostilities agreement is the basis for a post conflict transition. In the absence of such a plan, the risk of disintegration is high. Three of the four speakers were skeptical about the notion that the current Prime Minister will be part of transition.
(3) It is well-known that the IMF and World Bank policies did not work in many Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) economies. Furthermore, in the short term there was/is no indication that the U.S. sanctions against Ethiopia would be lifted (see Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 180 and Whitehouse Press Release of September 6, 2024). A humanitarian, peace, and development (HPD) nexus would have been a better avenue.
(4) The contest for the control of the sources of the Blue Nile (አባይ) and the maritime chock points have not been adequately explored in this colloquium. A colloquium on political culture and transition leaves a void if it does not examine the emerging geopolitical dynamics, multipolarity, alliances, and the influence on domestic politics. We hope this matter will be adequately explored in the future.
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