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Ethiopia’s Geopolitical Puzzle: Unraveling Abiy’s hidden Oromia Empire Ambitions and the Horn of Africa’s Complex Dynamics

Oromuma _ expansion
Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed in Oromo Geda traditional attire. On his right side is Oromia regional state president, Shimeles Abdissa (Photo : Social Media)

By Zel’Alem Bealu

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s pursuit of the Orommuma policy casts a shadow over the Horn of Africa (HOA), with implications that reverberate far beyond Ethiopia’s borders. His ambitious vision to establish a larger Oromia empire extends across the current Oromia Kilil (region), South and south-western regions, Afar, and Somali regions, reaching into Eritrea and Somaliland, introducing the seeds of regional instability. 

At the core of Abiy’s strategy is a calculated effort to weaken the Northern Semitic regions of Ethiopia—Amhara and Tigray as part of its grand strategy of dismantling the existing Ethiopian nation state. This includes not only marginalizing these regions but also indicating potential invasion plans into Eritrea. His expansionist agenda, marked by divisive tactics and subversive methods, risks escalating internal ethnic conflicts, particularly among the Oromo, Amhara, and Tigray communities. These internal tensions pose a severe threat to Ethiopia’s social fabric, aggravating existing divisions exacerbated by the divisive nature of ethnic federalism. 

The implications extend beyond Ethiopia, reaching a boiling point in the entire HOA, with Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, and Sudan caught at the epicenter of potential conflict. The specter of war with Eritrea and Somalia looms large, further destabilizing a region already grappling with fragility. These repercussions have broader ramifications, influencing the geopolitics of neighboring nations, including Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE, as they navigate the ripple effects of regional turmoil. 

Abiy’s policies, characterized by a predilection for chaos, ethnic hegemony, and authoritarianism, have led to a reckless and brutal approach to conflict resolution. The surge in Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) stands as a testament to the human cost of these geopolitical maneuvers. The Oromia empire ambitions, if unchecked, risk becoming a catalyst for wider instability in the HOA, as the region contends with the consequences of divisive ethnic federalism and the ominous specter of ethnic conflict. 

In this intricate geopolitical quagmire, the international community must remain vigilant, recognizing the urgent need for diplomatic intervention. The HOA’s future hangs in the balance, and a collective effort is essential to mitigate the risk of conflicts, preserve regional stability, and chart a course toward a more harmonious coexistence. 

As the Red Sea becomes a focal point in regional geopolitics, the influence of Abiy’s ambitions extends to this vital waterway. The strategic implications for maritime routes and regional security add another layer of complexity to an already intricate tapestry. To comprehend the gravity of this situation, we must delve into the nuances of internal politics within Ethiopia, considering ongoing tensions and incidents that underscore the risks of unchecked expansionist agendas.

Diverse perspectives from various Ethiopian ethnic groups and regional partners provide a more comprehensive understanding of the multifaceted challenges facing the HOA. It is imperative to consider the potential responses and impacts of major international actors, such as the United Nations, African Union, and specific countries, in shaping the trajectory of events in the region. The HOA’s fate rests in the delicate balance between diplomatic interventions, regional cooperation, and a nuanced understanding of the evolving geopolitical dynamics.

Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of 


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