By Dr. Minale Tibebu
Right now, the government of Ethiopia is hanging on a thin thread, waiting for its fate due to the real resistance from Fano. The current unholy marriage between the parties, Oromo gangs led by PP (Ogs-PP) and TPLF, ordered by the US in the name of Mike Hammer in the Pretoria agreement, will not work at all. The dynamic between these forces is fragile. Let us present some facts that justify this claim.
TPLFites are favored by the US more than the PP.
The Americans believe that their interests in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea Arena will be better protected by the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) than the existing ineffective, untrustworthy, and fake Ogs-PP government led by an erratic scammer who puts on a facade of calmness when in front of cameras. This is why they intervened to save the TPLF from total annihilation by forces coming from three directions: the Afar side, the Amhara side, and the Eritrean side. The city of Mekelle was about to fall into the hands of the government, Afar, Amhara, and Eritrean forces just before the US stepped in to save the TPLF. If the TPLF had not been more useful than the Ogs-PP, the Americans would have allowed them to disappear from the scene. However, the US has maintained its regional dominance by partnering with the TPLF for the past 40 years. Although the TPLF has been somewhat unfaithful by aligning with other significant forces like China.
No one wants the Ogs-PP basically.
The current Oromo PP gangs are not desirable by both the US and TPLFites. They do not see them as real partners. They are in this symbiotic relationship due to the central power the PP’s captured by deceiving and convincing many people. The TPLF lost the battle two times with the Ogs-PP: politically and militarily. Politically, when TPLF left 4-kilo to PP, and militarily through three rounds of wars. The US wanted to penalize TPLF for their association with China while they were close partners with the US for four decades. They support the new government led by the fake coalition between Oromo and Amhara politicians (Oromara). Now, both the tank and the bank are in the hands of a few Oromo gangs, hence both TPLF and the US are dependent on this for the time being. Otherwise, the unstable, unwise, and collection of immature Ogs-PP gangs are not real strategic partners in the long run. Time will reveal this fact.
The Amhara PP (A-PP) became useless to the US.
Oromara coalition came to power when the US was disengaged due to the Trump administration’s ‘America first’ policy. However, when the Democrats came to power, they became highly close to TPLFites and viewed the Oromara coalition as threatening US interests. As Oromara politicians grew closer to the Eritrean regime and surrounded TPLFites, the Americans decided to intervene and change the dynamics. This led to the Americans undermining the Amhara PP (A-PP) and going to Mekele to include TPLF in the coalition instead. A-PP was led by individuals who were considered cowardly, weak, and slow thinkers. They were deemed unfit for US interests. The current and previous foreign ministers and the former regional presidents all shared one common trait: they were good followers, not leaders. They failed to demonstrate the quality of leadership the US desired, which is why they were undermined and expected to merely follow others.
TPLFites and Ogs-PP competition
The TPLFites and Ogs-PP have to deliver certain things to their bosses: contain Eritrea and Isaias Afwerki so that Russia will not build its hegemony in the Horn; decrease the economic influence of China in the country and Africa; reduce the influence of BRICS in the Red Sea arena. Now, the two parties are in an official competition game. Both parties claim they can be good assets for their bosses. But both have proven to be useless in leading the country unless they receive real support from the second largest ethnic group, the Amhara people. Initially, their bosses were convinced to ignore/undermine this fact. However, Fano’s victory in a very short time has proven that the new coalition of TPLFites and Ogs-PP is a fragile and useless project.
Both TPLFites and Ogs-PP may end up destroying Ethiopia by pursuing their own imperialistic ambitions. TPLFites, utilizing Ogs-PP’s central power, could potentially engage in a war with Eritrea for two reasons: to change the regime in Eritrea and annex Assab, thereby establishing a new country called ‘Abay Tigray.’ This would allow them to seek long-awaited revenge against the Eritrean strongman. On the other hand, Ogs-PP could aim to take control of Djibouti and Somaliland, expanding the Oromo empire to encompass most parts of southern and eastern Ethiopia. They might even attempt to claim Assab and the Afar region for themselves, leading to heightened tensions between TPLFites and Ogs-PP. However, it is important to consider that Ogs-PP lacks real strength if the current government system collapses. The Oromo region would likely be divided into multiple factions. Therefore, the only power Ogs-PP has is the current arrangement where they are elected. Without this, there is no purpose for the Ogs-PP to exist. Conversely, the TPLFites can establish a genuine unity of purpose, but they face challenges as they are not located in the central part of the country and do not represent the largest group of people. No one trusts them to build a coalition and regain the dominance they once had.
Fano changes the dynamics of Power
Fano embodies the spirit of Ethiopianism, with its primary goal being fairness for the Amhara people. Composed of farmers from the Amhara region, these farmers played a crucial role in assisting the TPLF in overthrowing the Derg regime. TPLF took control of Tigray within 15 years. Surprisingly, it only took two years for them to advance from Tigray to Addis Ababa and remove the Derg from power, thanks to the involvement of Amhara region farmers in the struggle. Ogs-PP’s victory over the TPLFites in the two-year war can be attributed to the participation of Fano, including the Amhara special forces and militias. It is worth noting that the Eritreans also played a significant role in the struggle to reach 4-kilo. However, the true dynamics of power in Ethiopia can only be achieved with the involvement of Fano. Fano represents a force that holds real power. Abiy Ahmed Ali made the right decision by aligning himself with this force, but he made a mistake by sending his army to the region. This wrong decision has turned the army into a laughingstock in the country. Fano is now on the verge of ousting these corrupt officials from office, and Ethiopians everywhere are hopeful and praying for this outcome.
The question is not how and when the demise of Ogs-PP will lead the government, but rather, will the US, the kingmakers, learn from their mistake? Or are they planning to divide the country or keep its integrity? Some conspiracy theories suggest that “they” only want to weaken the country’s progress in the economy. In this sense, “they” refer to the cabal who rules the world behind the scenes. Since there is fear across the Western world that Africans will dominate the global economy in the next 30 years, slowing down that progress seems to be the game they are playing, and they want to divide Ethiopia as part of their bigger plan. There are voices that also suggest that their interests will not be protected if Ethiopia disintegrates. Therefore, they are determined to maintain the integrity of the country. Okay, if that is the case, why did the current US Ambassador in Ethiopia refer to Addis Ababa as “Finfinnee”? Some say he lacks experience and deeper understanding of foreign relations, and that’s why he tweeted that, while others have different opinions.
Whatever the US, EU, and the ‘cabal’ want, whether it is an integrated or disintegrated Ethiopia, it does not matter. What they desire right now is a strong and faithful leader who can serve their interests, similar to the TPLF under Meles Zenawi. Can they find such leadership in Abiy Ahmed of Beshaha? So far, it does not seem likely. He appears to be playing games with them and has proven to be the most untrustworthy person on the planet. It is only a matter of time before they replace him, either with TLFites, another Ogs-PP member, or someone supported by Fano.
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