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Whose “peaceful” mediation is taking place in South Africa?

The Art of Dominance—whose “peaceful” mediation is taking place in South Africa?

Ethiopia _ peace talk
Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks after meeting with AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat on Thursday, Oct. 27, 2022 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Blair Gable/Pool Photo via AP) Source : CT Insider

 Dr. Aklog Birara

“Economic sanctions are increasingly being used to promote the full range of American foreign policy objectives. Yet all too often sanctions turn out to be little more than expressions of U.S. preferences that hurt American economic interests without changing the target’s behavior for the better.” Brookings POLICY BRIEF #34, June 1, 1998

“Modern-day economic sanctions and blockades are comparable with medieval sieges of towns with the intention of forcing them to surrender. Twenty-first century sanctions attempt to bring not just a town, but sovereign countries to their knees. A difference, perhaps, is that twenty-first century sanctions are accompanied by the manipulation of public opinion through ‘fake news’, aggressive public relations, and a pseudo-human rights rhetoric, to give the impression that a human rights ‘end’ justifies the criminal means.” Alfred de Zayas, UN Human Rights Council Independent Expert on the promotion of a democratic and equitable international order. 

The US normalized sanctions to enforce submission. It sanctioned Haiti, Russia, Eritrea, and Ethiopia. These sanction that harm ordinary citizens most and contribute to the rise of authoritarianism and terrorism take hold without protest from members of the UN General Assembly let alone the UN Security Council where the US plays an imperial role. 

Punitive sanctions do not buy friends for the American people. Rarely if ever do sanctions promote peace, respect for human rights or democratic governance. Studies show that recurrent use of sanctions to advance US foreign policy interests is, in the words of Brookings, “Too much of a bad thing.”  

When the USA and the EU impose sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea in favor of an insurgency like the TPLF, these tools diminish the prospect of durable peace in the entire Horn and Eastern Africa. They undermine Ethiopia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, the unity of the country’s diverse population and degrade Ethiopia’s determination to eradicate poverty and accelerate sustainable development. 

It is contradictory to impose undue diplomatic pressure and imply more punitive sanctions on sovereign Ethiopia; and claim these are being done to advance human security, peace and stability. 

Whose “peace” agenda is it anyway? 

The Ethiopian people deserve peace. The Government of the United States, the EU and the rest of the international community can and must do what they can to support Ethiopia that is fighting the terrorist and treasonous TPLF and its enablers.  Rhetoric aside, this is not happening. 

I am sure you are as baffled as I am by the modalities, events, and media coverage of the mediation for “peace in Ethiopia” in South Africa. The prominence of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is concerning.  His proactive engagement gives the unmistaken impression that, the US is not just an observer; but a “mover and shaker” of the “peace” process.  This leads me to pose the following questions: 

  • Is it an Ethiopian or American agenda?  
  • Why is the US no longer an impartial observer like IGAD but a huge presence directing the process and inevitably influencing the outcome itself?
  • Why did Secretary Blinken call or meet with foreign leaders: Kenya, South Africa, the UAE, Canada; and what motivated him to place a call to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed? 
  • What is behind the undue pressure on Ethiopia and for whose benefit? 

It is critical to remember that US Secretary of State Blinken acknowledged TPLF instigated the third war on August 24, 2022. All told, TPLF is responsible and accountable for the deaths of more than 500,000 Tigrean-Ethiopians and tens of thousands of non-Tigrean civilians. TPLF forced Ethiopia’s National Defense and coalition forces to defend the country’s sovereignty, territorial  integrity as well as the safety and security of all Ethiopians including Tigreans. This responsibility to defend Ethiopia is enshrined in the UN Charter and covenants of the African Union. 

So, the Ethiopian Federal Government position, namely, for peace to occur, TPLF must disarm is unassailable. There cannot be two military establishments (armies) in the same country. By all credible accounts, Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) have taken control of much of Tigray and are closing in on Mekele, the regional capital. ENDF surgical operations spared lives, institutions, and landmarks. ENDF has begun rebuilding roads, bridges and other physical and economic infrastructure destroyed or damaged by TPLF deliberately. 

All indicators on the ground show positive developments. I believe, the sooner TPLF gives up arms and surrenders; the sooner the restoration, rehabilitation, and the opening of all services process—banking, telecom, electricity, trade, and the like will begin. Tigrean Ethiopians and the rest deserve to see this happen. 

The military game is over 

By all accounts, including Western pro-TPLF champions Rene’ Lefort, Martin Plaut, Alex de Waal the TPLF military machine is degraded. Thousands of TPLF military officers and combatants have surrendered.  Reliable sources say TPLF is ready to surrender. So, the US, EU, UN, and AU must take this remarkable development into account. 

I commend South Africa for hosting the mediation for “peace” in Ethiopia. 

Discussions for peace that started on October 22, 2022 involve the Federal Government of Ethiopia and the leadership of insurgent TPLF. In line with the doctrine of “solving African problems by Africans,” former President of Nigeria Olusegun Obasanjo is appointed by the AU to lead the three-person Africa team. This team must be allowed to do its job without undue pressure or interference from the US or the EU or Egypt or any external power. 

Just last weekend, one million Ethiopians demonstrated in Addis Ababa and hundreds of thousands in major cities throughout Ethiopia supporting the ENDF and urging the US not to interfere in Ethiopia’s domestic affairs. Their voices matter. The West cannot afford to dismiss them. Their voice underscores the depth and breadth of hatred for TPLF that caused the mayhem, including the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent Tigrean Ethiopians. 

By his utterances and his fearful insinuations against Ethiopia, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken deepens the crisis. As mentioned earlier, Secretary Blinken called the President of Kenya, the Foreign Minister of South Africa, the head of the UAE and the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. He met with Musa Faki Muhammad, Chairperson of the African Union in Canada. 

What is the US demanding? 

  1. Blinken wants the Ethiopian army to leave Tigray, implying Tigray is not a core part of Ethiopia.

Tigray is an integral part of Ethiopia. This demand is gross interference in the domestic affairs of an independent African state. It undermines Ethiopia’s territorial integrity.  This call is unreasonable and unacceptable. The goal is to save the TPLF, an American lackey. 

  1. Blinken wants Eritrea out of Ethiopia, He demands that Eritrea and Ethiopia must stop cooperating in the war against TPLF.

Ethiopia’s relations with Eritrea or any other country is not America’s business. Neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea is an American colony. They are independent states attacked by the TPLF. both countries have the right to defend themselves. 

It saddens me to note that, instead of respecting Ethiopia’s sovereign rights and instead of demanding TPLF gives up armed insurgency, the USA is forcing Ethiopia to halt military operations as a precondition for peace; agree to US pressure or face severe sanctions. 

US relentless pressure and threat of more sanctions on Ethiopia is pushing Africa’s “Motherland” to cave in, abandon its celebrated independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity or defy submission. In effect, the USA is forcing Ethiopia to reconsider its relations with the West in general, especially with the USA. This is tragic and consequential. History will judge the Government of the US harshly. 

  1. Blinken has politicized and compromised the mediation for “peace” process.  

It is my considered opinion that the peace process is no longer an Ethiopian agenda.  It is a US Government agenda.  I am convinced Ethiopia will win the war. I am at the same time fearful of the dire consequences, including severance of relations that might follow if Ethiopia does not do what the US wants. 

Nothing has united the Ethiopian people better as have two major developments over the past decade: a) The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that is on the verge of completion and b) The war against the terrorist and treasonous TPLF and its foreign enablers that Ethiopia is winning on the war front. Both show national resolve and determination against formidable odds. Ethiopia has prevailed on both fronts. 

I shall conclude this commentary by commending a friend of Ethiopia, Graham Peebles. In his timely Op-ed “A Loud and Clear Lesson – For Ethiopia and the World” on October 28, 2022, he reminds the West: 

“First things first: as I write so-called peace talks are underway between the democratically elected government of Ethiopia and The Terrorist TPLF. That in itself is a bizarre sentence, and prompts an array of related questions, and issues around law and order, justice, national governance. To be clear, the TPLF have never wanted peace, and are not in South Africa to find a way to end the conflict that they started and perpetuated for two long and deeply painful years. They want power, they have engaged in talks because they have been defeated, but talks about what?

Holding hands with the TPLF men at, or more likely, under the table — out of sight — are US/UN ‘observers. The reason for their attendance is, one assumes, to ensure TPLF bosses are kept out of prison and allowed to slip away in the night and find amnesty somewhere. Canada has been mentioned as a possible destination, although why the Canadians (or anyone else in fact) would want them is a mystery. A cell in the Hague would be my choice as they eke out their days waiting to be tried in the International Criminal Court.”

There is no plausible moral or ethical or human rights argument I can find for the Government of the United States to defend and save a terrorist and treasonous group that sent tens of thousands of Tigrean child soldiers to their deaths. 

I urge the Biden Administration to stop gross interference in the domestic affairs of one of the most important countries in Africa, Ethiopia. It is in America’s self interest to abandon TPLF now and side with Ethiopia and its 120 million citizens. 

Ethiopia Shall Prevail!!!


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  1. Where are sons and daughters of Ethiopia when the country needs them? History is going to judge us severely if we don’t rise up as one to fend off European bullies?

    • How to rise up as one when the Orommuma government is the most brutal and hostile to Amharas and all Ethiopians who embrace Ethiopiawinet?
      The Prosperity Party dominated by OLF is bent on dividing Ethiopians along ethnic lines, religions, economy, education, culture, language etc. and with the daily Massacre, ethnic cleansing and Genocide against Amhara, Orthodox Christians and Muslims?

      Every Amhara has a family who is either in prison, raped, gruesomely harmed and killed, Massacred, looted, threatened or attacked by Prosperity Party cadres and its hidden hands Shene.

      Every Amhara is in danger of being murdered and facing with looming disaster unless they come up with self-defense strategies.

      Abiy has killed so many Northerners, Amhara and Tigray and many more Gurage and Oromo Orthodox Christians and Muslims and putting pressure on people to embrace the few Oromo- Irreecha faith that people already knew is against their faith and want to avoid instead.

      Abiy is well known to revert back to ruthless dictator in seconds every time he gets out of trouble because he came with a well planned Orommuma/OLF agenda to destroy the fabric of Ethiopians and massacre Amharas and those who embrace their historical coexistence as one Ethiopians.

    • Hi, Abdul-FataL al-Egypty! Ad nauseam!

      Alem is an Ethiopian heroine. She used to take on your Arab masters on their own Arab media [Egyptian, Middle Eastern, etc.]. Oh, they devilize Amaras the most. Although I was ‘banned’ from their media, I used to baptize their editors with the truth via e-mail.

      ALL hitherto Ethiopian regimes haven’t done an iota of what Abiy has done for Amaras in just the past two years: 450 km asphalt road for Gojjam alone, 450 tractors and hundreds of other farm machinery, new state-of-the-art Abbay Bridge at Bahir-Dar…

      For what it’s worth, even the Abbay-Dejen-DebreMarkos-BahirDar-Gonder asphalt road was built for Amaras by the evil TPLF itself, though at 10X the cost and longer time. Although OLF et al whine ‘Neftegna Amara…’, Amara rulers did nothing for Amaras.

  2. I have a feeling TPLF was a spy network for America across the globe, ie extension of the CIA. Why do I feel that way? Wherever America lost in wars, it escaped with local people who worked for it, even at embassies, as a matter of unwritten policy. They did that in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. America seems to be trying to do the same with the terrorist TPLF that I suspect was their spy network while in power, be it under cover of Ethiopian diplomats (Tigres), Ethiopian government while dominated by Tigres. The under cover junta might have spied on Africans through the AU, China, Russia, the entire Middle East, and others the Americans targeted as enemies/competitors. That was in line with TPLF’s declared principle of working even with the devil to attain its goals.

  3. So far so good in a sense that both sides have not chosen the media to divulge what is going on behind the closed doors. I’m counting on the AU, Uhuru, IGAD and Good Ole USA for this historic peace talk to bear fruits. I said historic because it is the first one in a way it was planned, how long it took and the who-is-who in the planning. It was not some commies of the Soviet Union who twisted the arms of the adversaries and literally forced them to some joint in East Germany or Damascus. Close to 7 million innocent citizens in Tigray are crying for lasting peace. The entire 120 plus million upright citizens of the entire country are vying and screaming for peace. Every neighboring country is up all night having nightmares worrying when all those 120 plus people will be on the move, besieged, bewildered and don’t give a damn anymore!

  4. I am also confused as to what the US’s interest is in Ethiopia’s internal affairs. I know over the 27 years TPLF run the government of Ethiopia, the CIA operated and manipulated government policies. As the former USAID Administrator had indicated in 2010, the Meles government was being run by the CIA. What did the CIA find that would interest the United States? Still, the CIA is impeded in Abiy’s government and making reform difficult. They are fueling corruption and damaging the economy. Please tell Blinken to blink somewhere else. Ethiopia will be self-reliant and win. We do not need America’s handout. If they are in love with the TPLF leaders they can have them. They already have American passports!

  5. Subject: Whose “peaceful” mediation is taking place in South Africa? by Dr. Aklog Birara, October 28, 2022

    QUOTE: ” When the USA and the EU impose sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea in favor of an insurgency like the TPLF, these tools diminish the prospect of durable peace in the entire Horn and Eastern Africa. They undermine Ethiopia’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, the unity of the country’s diverse population and degrade Ethiopia’s determination to eradicate poverty and accelerate sustainable development. ” UNQUOTE & Perfect; Insightful Commentary

    Humble Opinion, 11 Nov 20222
    a). No need to add a single word.
    b) It covers it ALL for seemingly time immemorial.
    c). And will continue to do so i.e. the exploitation of BLACK AFRICAN STATES to their depth.
    d). The utilization of selected African Countries for the exploitation of Black Africa is, of course, another tool since time immemorial.
    f). Our Dear Black Africa will then remain, as a FAILURE Black Continent, to be USED as a convenient TOOL in the colonization of OUR Black African Continent !?!?!?!?!? How Low can an Honest People be deceived, fail and helpless for time immemorial ?!?!?!?



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