Abiy’s claim of the Red Sea sickening  political gambling to stay in power

By Dr. Taye Minale

The so-called 2019-Nobel peace laureate, Abiy Ahmed Ali, is a sick head warmonger and bloodsucker who has watched 1.5 million die on his watch.  During the war with TPLF in Tigray, a million souls vanished. In contrast, before and after this war, many Ethiopians have died (are dying) everywhere, including in the recent war in Amhara region with Fano. The country has faced enormous economic destruction, and it is facing tremendous pressure to disintegrate as a country under his leadership. Recently, rumors were that the man was looking for war with Eritrea to control the Red Sea. Now,  the rumor is no longer a rumor; the man himself came out in the open and said with a loud and clear voice that, “Red Sea is a matter of Ethiopians existence, not just a luxury.”  What a cunning statement! Let us dive and analyze why this sick man was uttering such nonsense at this time.

#1. To appeal to the Westerners. 

It is obvious by now that political power in countries like Ethiopia is gained and preserved if and only if the Western powers, like the US and EU, agree with it. Without their blessing, even if you get it, you will be reduced to nothing.  It is enough to see the examples of R. Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Isayas Afeworki of Eritrea. In the present world order system, the Westerners are the ones who have the upper hand in many respects. Of course, for the future, countries within the block of BRICS and others may challenge that dominance. But for now, still, the westerners have dominance in the eastern part of Africa in general. 

During the second round of war between the government forces and TPLFites, the Americans told the TPLFites to stop marching to Addis Ababa and return to Mekele. There was the change of heart. They want to save TPLFites because they see the danger if they go to the capital, the anger of the whole country will destroy them. Instead, they gave them a new mission: to go to the north and take back Eritrea from Isaya and control the Red Sea for them. This was evidenced when General Tsadikan appealed to the Heritage Foundation that the US must save them so that Isayas would not dominate the region. Tsadikan was articulative that they are the only good partners who can defend the interests of the US in the region. The Americans heard it and saved them in the name of the Pretoria agreement. Abiy saw that process with his own eyes. He was asked further not to disarm TPLFites since they were given the task of galvanizing their power to contain or invade Eritrea. He saw that TPLFites are considered as a credible partner of the Westerners. During the two year war, he saw how the westerners have helped them. He is now trying to outsmart the TPLFites. He openly said that I can take Red Sea and control it. He wants to take TPLFites relevance for westerners to himself.  

One thing we saw a constant pattern of behavior from Abiy Ahmed Ali is that if he hears new ideas, strategies, methods and so on, he steals it. He makes it his own. Right now, he wants the Westerner’s partnership to stay in power. They have helped him to come to power. Now, he wants to challenge them to prefer him over the likes of Getachew Reda, Tsadikan Gebretensae, and Debretsion. For him, life is competition and gambling, after all. He wants to gamble so that the recent rumor that the westerners are working to remove him from power. God forbid, for him, it is better for millions to die, than losing his power. He was heard in one meeting, “During Derg time, a hundred thousand died in opposition movements, but in our time, it will be worse.” He has already shown us by sticking to power even after about 1.5 million have died during his time. Now, he is gambling for millions to die in a new war with Eritrea. What a sickness!

#2 To save his image from the humiliation of defeat by Fano in Amhara region

We have heard that the military generals of his own have approached him several times and that the military is crumbling day by day in the war with Fano in the Amhara region. The third round of military operations to disarm Fano in the Amhara region has not worked for him. In Abiy’s mind and his Orommuma gangs who grab the state, one powerful group can challenge the political power they got by accident. That is, the Fano forces in the Amhara region and in general, the Amhara people. Hence, they rushed to disarm the people. They thought the job would be done in 10 days. The reverse happened. The military is disarming at an alarming rate to Fano. It is estimated that two hundred thousand military forces have been killed, or captured, or disappeared or sided with Fano since the operation launched about six months ago. What a shame! What a defeat.  

You plan for something, and precisely the opposite happens. That is why the Westerners changed their mind on him. They saw that he is not a trusted person to hold power to keep their interest. Remember, he quickly decided and jumped in to be a BRICS member. They saw how he changed his position so quickly. They saw how unfaithful he is in his dealings with others. They also gave him the task of containing Amhara forces, and within a shorter period, the army was on the brink of destruction. He wanted to take out the remaining military forces without being perceived as defeated. He got a way out. If I say that I am mobilizing the military to the Eritrean border to take back the Red Sea, people will not perceive us as defeated in the Amhara region by Fano.  A rumor is out there that the military forces protecting GERD are mobilized to Eritrean border already. 

#3 Ethiopians will like me again if I bring the Red Sea back to Ethiopia

Another massive loss during the three years of his reign is that his support among the people in the country and those in the diaspora has dwindled to a low level. Almost 99% of the people reject his leadership in the country. Most Oromos prefer another Oromo to come to power than him. They perceive him as their enemy. People in Tigray and Amhara have huge resentment against him due to the wars he waged on them. The other ethnic groups are afraid that they are next after the war in Amhara. This guy is the most hated and despised person in the country. Even kids hate him. So he thinks if I bring back the Red Sea, my reputation and name will be accepted by Ethiopians.

#4 Deceiving the Oromo’s to side with him

He is also trying hard for the Oromo people to stand with him. When talking with Oromo ethnic groups, he says he is building an Oromo Empire that extends to the Red Sea. His mouthpiece, Shimelis Abidisa  was heard saying, on the last Irreecha day, “We will celebrate the next Festival by the Red Sea side.”  This talk is highly symbolic and appealing to the Oromo youth: the Red Sea for the Oromo Empire. 

In conclusion, the guy is sick. His sickness has come from overthinking how to take power and stay in control. He has done it since childhood. He will say any words and use any method to help him stay in power. As he said in one meeting, he will retaliate with a mighty force on anyone who comes to take his power. That is it! Ethiopia needs a better person than a madman who is drunk with power.  

Editor’s note : Views in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com

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