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A Crucial Lesson We Should Learn: The Best Predictor of Future Behavior is Past Behavior!

Let us promise to ourselves to follow the principle of our forefathers: predicting future behaviors based on past behaviors!  

Trusting habitual traitors and blaming them for betraying again is like believing in Satan and blaming him for doing the job he was created for!

Ethiopia predictor of future behavior
credit : Quote fancy

 By Belayneh Abate  

As history teaches, Ethiopia was a historically strong sovereign nation that Herodotus and Prophet Mohammad once called the Land of Justice. Unfortunately, this very nation, which is considered as the beginning of many things including human life has been the land of ethnic cleansing and genocide for more than 30 years. This tragedy occurred in our watch because the land of justice has been ruled by immature dictators who do not have a shred of value for human life let alone for justice. No heinous immature dictators like these ones stay on their blood-soaked chairs unless they buy strong support from pseudo intellectuals, otherwise known as intellectual prostitutes.   

Individuals with whatever degree type or number should NOT be considered as intellectuals unless they complete climbing the pyramid of data, information, knowledge, and wisdom. Intellectuals who attain wisdom (the last stage of the pyramid) rarely fall in love with habitual traitors and serve them as loyal cadres and propagandists.  

Pseudo intellectuals who suffer from a famine of wisdom always fail to predict future behaviors based on past behaviors. Predicting future behavior from past behavior has been the core principle of our forefathers before the western erudite psychologists started to use it in their maxims.  

Our forefathers, with no degree hats on their skulls, were good at analyzing the past events to predict the future incidents. They used to predict individuals’ future abilities based on their past activities. Predicting the future achievements based on the past accomplishments was the culture of our ancestors. Based on these core principles, our forefathers never elected a volunteer slave, a liar, a traitor, a looter, or a coward as Gobez Aleqa, Shimagille, or Atbia Dagna. Our forefathers used to think in three dimensions for long not to give the hands of their daughters to uncultured and unprincipled boys or boys raised of such parents.    

Perhaps this core principle of our forefathers streamed from the biblical teachings. For example, Mathew 7:15-20 teaches on how to deal with people with a history of bad behaviors and false preachers as follows: ” Watch out for false prophets. They come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ferocious wolves.  By their fruit you will recognize them. Do people pick grapes from thornbushes, or figs from thistles?  Likewise, every good tree bears good fruit, but a bad tree bears bad fruit.  A good tree cannot bear bad fruit, and a bad tree cannot bear good fruit. Every tree that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire. Thus, by their fruit you will recognize them. Ezekiel 13:9 teaches “my hand will be against the prophets who see false visions and utter lying divinations. They will not belong to the council of my people or be listed in the records of Israel, nor will they enter the land of Israel. Then you will know that I am the Sovereign LORD. Similarly, Jeremiah 23: 16 teaches “do not listen to what the prophets are prophesying to you; they fill you with false hopes. They speak visions from their own minds, not from the mouth of the LORD”. 

While our forefathers used their bible based wisdom to predict future behaviors based on past behaviors, the Westerners came up with tools of resumes and curriculum vitae. In the western world, one has to read and verify the past achievements before he or she hires a custodian late alone the leader of a nation.  

Unfortunately, the Ethiopian elites have lost the principles and the culture of our forefathers as much as they have failed to follow the Westerners’ tradition of analyzing data or reading resumes to understand the records of past experiences . As a result of this tragic failure, many Ethiopian elites cheer behind murderers, looters, volunteer slaves and traitors. It was perplexing to watch the Ethiopian elites endorsing the murderers, looters, and volunteer slaves that shuffled power five years ago under the pressure of the West after thousands of people were massacred , disabled and tortured by these looters and volunteer slaves who are now in power.    

The Ethiopian elites salivated when the volunteer slaves such as Abiy Ahmed pretended to act as visionary leaders that stood on their own spines. Failing to stand by their forefathers’ principles and ignoring to read their past activities and resumes, the shallow elites blindly trusted the shameless volunteer slaves merely because they suddenly started to bark cunning slogans such as “Ethiopia is an addiction”,  “alive or death we all are Ethiopians,” and so on.   The elites fail to understand that  “a bad tree cannot bear good fruit. Every tree that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire.” The habitual liars and traitors whom they called “Team Lemma, Team Gedu blah blah” were little branches of the cursed bad tree-the Ethiopian People Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).  

These branches of the cursed bad tree never confessed the crimes they committed for more than 27 years. They did not attend rehabilitation centers or monasteries to clean their sins of treason, torturing, incarcerating the people of God into killils, inciting ethnic conflicts, massacre, ethnic cleansing, and genocides. And yet they were considered by unscrupulous elites as Mosses and other religious leaders who lead the Israelites after his disappearance. 

On the other hand, the unprincipled elites belittled principled citizens who analyzed these traitors’ past experiences and criminal records and warned not to support the criminals that murdered and tortured even patriots that freed them from their Dedebit bosses. Defying the concerns of principled citizens and shouting the “national unity” mantra as an excuse,  the gullible elites failed to admit that these slaves were criminals, who were liberated by the martyrs they slaughtered.   

Like an immature girl cheated by a cunning but useless boy, the gullible elites were miserably seduced by the slaves’ rhetoric and pretensions behind podiums. These elites failed to explore how  Legesse Zenawi’s gang group selected these slaves in order to establish its rule at the graves of Chauvinists and Neftegnas. The elites forgot that Legesse Zenawi’s gang group never assigned slaves that would unite Ethiopians or love Ethiopia to the climax of addiction.    

As aliens that recently descended from Mars, these unprincipled elites acted as if they did not know that the criminal party Abiy Ahmed leads made the country land- locked, granted land to Sudan, promoted endless ethnic conflicts, massacred people, tortured and sterilized innocents. The pseudo- intellectuals did not want to remember that this party executed these atrocities and treasons after designing and building effective weapons. The elites do not want to admit that these effective weapons were Abiy and other volunteer slaves who were embraced like a darling first child by the unprincipled elites several years ago.    

The unprincipled elites did not want to listen when principled citizens spoke loudly that trusting these criminal slaves is trusting Yihuda. Yihuda served Satan betraying Christos that groomed him as a disciple. Similarly, these slaves served Legesses’s gang group betraying the people that cultivated them from cradle to adulthood.   

The opportunist elites did not want to admit that Yihuda was a better traitor than the volunteer slaves they supported. Yihuda never hammered nails to Christos’s extremities, nor did he tie rope around his neck to gratify Satan. But these slaves, who are now supported by opportunist elites, shot bullets and bombs at their mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters and neighbors to please their masters. Yihuda regretted his treason and committed suicide, but these slaves showed no remorse and placed themselves into seclusions. Instead of placing themselves into seclusions, these shameless traitors pretended as if they were visionary leaders to steal the hearts of the naive mass and unprincipled elites.  The elites failed to understand that these shameless slaves were regrouping themselves to stay in power for the coming decades.   

The shameful Ethiopian elites were also supporting the traitor leaders of “opposition” political parties, who are currently dancing with the criminal leaders of EPRDF. How could an “intellectual” stand behind the traitor opposition party leaders that dine with the heads of EPRDF that massacred, amputated, sterilized, and blinded the members and supporters of their political parties? What kinds of intellectuals support anyone who was in the leadership of a party that massacred people or traitor politicians that open a bottle of sparkling Champagne and cut a decorated cake with the murderers of their members and followers? What kinds of well-informed elite vote for these types of traitors?   

Even after the massacre of at least 1.2 million, displacement of tens of millions of innocent citizens within the last 4 years, and they did everything in their power to destroy  one of the oldest church on Earth, many Ethiopian elites are still failing to learn from their mistakes. Some still have faith in the EPRDF-2. Others blame the EPRDF-2 traitor leaders instead of blaming themselves for not using their flabby tissue in their skull to analyze the data about the past experiences and records of these traitors. Trusting habitual traitors and blaming them for betraying again is like believing in Satan and blaming him for doing the job he was created for.     

Einstein once said two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity. It is not a character of a well-informed, knowledgeable, and wise intellectual to trust a habitual traitor and blame the traitor for doing his usual job-betraying.  

It is time to learn from our mistakes. Let us confess to ourselves, to the Ethiopian people and to God that we have made grave mistakes, and place ourselves on firm grounds for future decision making. Let us promise to ourselves not to support past or current criminals, habitual traitors, and liars. Let us promise to ourselves not to throw our support for untested or examined candidates. Let us promise to proclaim my hand will be against the prophets who see false visions and utter lying divinations, they will not belong to the council of my people” as the book of Ezekiel teaches. Let us promise to ourselves to follow the principle of our forefathers-predicting future behaviors based on past behaviors. Thank you.  

For notes and references check PDF file HERE 

Editor’s note : views in the article reflect the views of the writer, not the views of 


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  1. Come hell or high water, I don’t condone any ethnic’s hegemony on the 85 others using any guise/façade. I am also against orchestrating murder, getting Ethiopians killed, and discrediting Abiy just to wrench power. Nowadays, it has become the signature and MO of Amara Supremacists to wear Pro-Ethiopia hats to advance & assert Amara hegemony.

    As we speak, there are over 15* million Amaras living in the Oromo Zone alone. These Amaras sought refuge in Oromo Zone fleeing cyclic poverty in Amara Zone. Successive previous regimes failed them! COMPARE: No Oromo lives in Amara Zone and MOST Ethiopians are unwelcome in Gojjam & Gondar – but most in Oromia are from G&G.

    The Ethiopian Diaspora [ED] wants to have more say on Ethiopia than Ethiopians. Aren’t most ED beneficiaries of former tyrant regimes that made Ethiopia synonymous with “Famine,” “World’s Poster Child of Poverty” and the song “We are the World”? Didn’t “We are the World” become world’s ‘national anthem for Ethiopia’ because of them?

    COMPARE: Abiy kept the TPLF-bankrupted Ethiopia afloat with $1 billion from UAE’s Prince MBZ. Despite COVID, TPLF-OLA Proxy Wars, West’s embargo/sanctions, Birr devaluation, drought…, Abiy’s regime feeds 10 million students twice a day; Addis feeds over 45, 000 needy residents twice a day at 15 Community Centers; the Sheger Bakery & Public-Private Bakeries give free bread to the needy; over 700, 000 refugees have been flown home; and Ethiopia has started exporting tons of surplus wheat. Is Abiy worse?

    *Over 15 million Amaras live in Oromia alone:


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