A decisive victory against TPLF resolves the political calculus

By Dereje Yimer

The political twist    

TPLF’s deceptive approach in the face of the international community has taken another new dimension. After having launched a fresh attack in the neighboring Amhara region, it starts echoing for a new peace deal process. Top leaders of the group including Getachew reda, pledges to sit for talks with the central government under the umbrella of AU. Paradoxically, the spokesperson castigated AU in his lengthy article published on an African report website a couple of weeks ago. So why does TPLF accept the mediating role of AU abruptly?

It is possible to employ plausible arguments to elucidate the knee jerk decision of TPLF. First, it wants to put undue pressure in the peace process by seizing major territory from the Amhara region. This would enhance its bargaining power.  Woldia was the primary target for the new conspired scheme. Yet the allied federal force has overturned the fresh attack and claimed a victory in some area, instead. The key town Aberegele, 50 km from Mekele, failed under the hand of the allied force, after the truce had broken.  

Though Wolkaite has a paramount importance to change the course of the current conflict, TPLF leaves it for the sake of temporal success in the Reya area . Most Observers were perplexed by the mad decision. Nevertheless the terrorist group had a meditated plan on it. Military analysts say that TPLF prefers the Kobo front, because of the landscape. Kobo topography is conducive for human wave attack.  Due to the fact that the allied force strategically retreating from Kobo town was cogent.  

As we all know, a human wave, an antiquated infantry tactic, was used in a large population, particularly in the South East Asian countries. Tigray only accounts for about 6 percent of the total population. What is the rationale behind using this suicidal tactic for its own people? This show that the terrorist group never hesitates to employ all mechanisms as far as its narrow interest is fulfilled. 

The new narrative 

The most striking development in the propaganda arena is the changed narrative towards Amhara. Unlike the previous version, the TPLF Propaganda machine started evangelizing Amhara, to get a loophole from the current desperate condition. They pay lip service to rescue their dynasty from the brink of collapse. It’s utterly ridiculous.  Maneuvering by such old-fashioned propaganda is futile. 

Indeed, the Amhara and Tigray people have a close tie in all respects. The problem parent is TPLF. Fraternity, the buzzword in TPLF camp, is far from reality. 

The rationale behind allied force 

Smashing the terrorist group, with the help of allied force, was not a remote reality in the world history. The western allied force had successfully crushed the Hitler army. Combatting al-Qaeda and ISIS is utterly impossible without the active involvement of different countries. 

By the same token, the involvement of Eritrea in the conflict is justifiable as far as the Horn of Africa geopolitics is concerned.  The Tigray Liberation front, designated as terrorist by the house of people representatives, has a grand irredentist project, directly affects the territorial integrity of Eritrea.   

The terrorist group is far from being smashed, is still launching an attack in different fronts. Ethiopia and Eritrea have a concrete justification to counter the threat jointly. 

The Diplomatic twist 

The Western pressure has abated in the recent conflict. No serious measure is employed as a warning against the central government. Instead, they cancel the debt and give a green light to foster the relationship. The prevailing political air blows in the western world frustrates pro-TPLF groups. Nonetheless, the changed political dynamics in the international arena doesn’t come out of diplomatic effort from the government side. The PP-led regime follows the same ill-fitted diplomatic approach. We can mention some rationales for the western diplomatic twist. 

First, they calculate the Power balance between the central government and TPLF. The TPLF dynasty is at the verge of demise.  Second, Russia-Ukraine war holds primary attention and the international political dynamics developed in recent time, threatening the hegemony of the western block. This could give a moment of relief from the western pressure.    

Concluding remark 

Breaking the backbone of TPLF would have an ultimate solution. The Tigrian people have been suffering at the hand of a ruthless clique. The TPLF led regime had a good track record in controlling monopoly of violence. Entrenching monopoly of violence in the narrow Tigray region is quite easy. Consequently, the region is devoid of significant popular uprising with all suffering. The huge task lies, therefore, on the hand of allied forces to liberate Tigrian people. No peace deal with TPLF would bring a viable solution. Ethiopia and the horn can get fresh political air with the decisive victory against the terrorist group. 

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