Editor’s note : views expressed in the article do not necessarily reflect the views of borkena.com
Mandelaw Bageru – mandelawb@gmail.com
Introduction
Just as government is a necessary evil in the public’s life, so also, friction is the necessary evil for many social progresses just as it is cent percent in physics. Currently, civilians in Ukraine are positioned to bear the brunt of the evils of war provoked and cultivated by NATO fake manipulative strategies, which is also opening the Pandora box that contains the seeds of global hegemony. It is unfortunate the general public in Ukraine and all other innocent offence bearers are suddenly squeezed to face this tragic reality in their everyday livelihoods.
Indicators of Global Hegemony
By definition democracy represents the voice the global general public irrespective of their caste, color, creed or money power. Yet, world history had never witnessed, in practice, such level of democracy encompassing all nations with equal consideration. Though we have the UN as an entity for global nations’, it is mostly the G7, G20, NATO etc., who call the shots and, in many occasions, US will lead and others just followed! It is not the fault of the above-mentioned biggies but the majority of nations of the world had not felt or realized such a need until recently. But as most nations are fully connected and integrated in terms of use of resources, manpower, skill, expertise etc., knowingly or unknowingly in the current globalized era, an event in one geography like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affects all other nations in one form or another. That means, the critical need for world democracy on equal and respectful footing is pressingly felt.
Triggers of Global Hegemony
When one or a club of dominant nations arbitrarily exercise their power to openly cripple the freedom of other nations to live with equal rights on earth; or puts undue damage on their respective socio economic health fabrics simply because of the former’s arrogances and phobic tendency to abruptly exert quick fix of militaristic and economic pressures, then, the need for working out one’s democratic rights gets triggered by sudden force to give birth for unexpected resolves; more as a surprise.
Exerting Sanctions without Time and Moral Accountability
Pondering over this complex crisis, one can’t help but wonder how NATO Alliance members jump on to pushing hasty decisions that do not seems to depict their true primary position – representing and being responsible for the welfare of the global peace and welfare of people. Very strict economic sanctions in all fronts of a nation’s lifeline including not allowing “SWIFT” for Russia which literally made many billions of foreign currency reserve of Russia temporarily useless. We need to remember these reserves were built by the work of Russian people exploring and exporting oil and gas to Europe for several many years which the people of Europe had enjoyed/utilized and it is totally unfair morally by not allowing the Russia government to make use of its sales proceeds.
Europe or US as a political unit may have the right to impose sanctions due to the current event of Ukraine war but neither of them have the moral right to impose sanctions on events and consequences (earlier oil and gas sales) which took part in different times. This rule of accounting time-based events in their rightful place in decision making is central to understand whether a decision is morally right or wrong.
Even in common work places we can find this problem of people conveniently considering events and sequences as per their bias and move back and forth in memory recalling only based on current events and in favor of them. Otherwise, is it necessary for so many people to keep reminding that lakhs of women Russian soldiers were killed ruthlessly by Germans in 1940s or the colonial aggression by many other European countries on Asian and African countries?
The sanctions on Russia declared by some European leaders (primarily on the status they enjoy or self conceived personality of being a world leader clan) had started the long pending requirement of putting world currencies in their rightful place. The act of making the reserve foreign currencies of Russia useless for them had given them the right to reject US dollar or Euro – rightfully so. US dollar was so far the de facto world currency by virtue of its universal acceptance. However, as renowned author Jim Rogers said, US shot at its own foot by making it not acceptable or deal worthy in some locations via sanctions. No wonder recently China and South Arabia are mulling for Yuan based deal and in recent few years India, China, Russia… etc. are hoarding gold in anticipation for a new dual world economic order.
What is Dollar Hegemony All About?
Dollar hegemony has been the system where foreign central banks keep their monetary and international savings reserves in dollars and the dollars are used to finance the military bases around the world, almost eight hundred military bases surrounding them. So, basically central banks have to keep their savings by weaponing them, by militarizing them, by lending them to the United States, to keep spending abroad. So this system gave America a free ride. As a result, the USA grabbed Russia’s reserves having grabbed in the recent past those of Afghanistan’s foreign reserves and Venezuela’s foreign reserves and those of other nations.
Amidst the Russo-Ukraine crisis, grabbing Russia’s existing reserves means that other countries can no longer safely and trustfully maintain their reserves by sending money back, depositing them in US banks or buying US Treasury Securities, or having other US investments because they could simply be grabbed as has happened to Russia. So, all of a sudden, the general public worldwide is worriedly observing that the world economy fracture into two parts, that is, a dollarized part and other countries that do not follow the neoliberal policies that the United States insists that its allies should follow strictly to stay in the monetary MARKET. What the Russo-Ukraine crisis has suddenly created could be summed up as a new dual world economic order.
So, at last, time has also come for US Dollar to be dethroned as world currency since it had lost its true value ever since the heavy printing of it in the last two years without any tangible economic value backing it. In this respect, Russia’s demand of settling financial Transactions via Ruble may serve as one indicator of halting the hitherto known dollar hegemony. In fact, Russia’s demand of settlement by Ruble or gold or other than US & Euro currencies for energy purchase by Europe is setting the clock anew, moving for the new world democratic processes free of hegemony and based on mutual footing as well as trustworthiness. There is no more need for a global class-room monitor or a boy-scouts’ leader to set the guiding values for the global arena.
Anti-dictatorial counteraction surprise with the rejection of the established unilateral globalized power like US Dollar or the Euro of the NATO member nations. Rather, these counteractions raise the voices of multiple nations views. Recent outright views or behavior of OPEC countries, China, Hungary etc., in defiance to the traditionally mighty nations is a pointer. In his now famous 2007 Munich speech Putin had indicated how the unipolar or bipolar dissections will make way for multi polar to influence the majority in the new world order. He had also glaringly brought to the attention the growing influence of “other” countries in shaping the world by referring to China’s and India’s GDP, and how their combined GDP exceeds that of the US GDP and BRICS GDP exceeds Europe. Even though many other countries that may not have grown in power economically, there is no doubt that nations from across all continents (notably from Africa) will soon wield their influence in shaping the world democracy.
NATO Looking for Soft-Targets
The world is passing through a complex juncture. Countries are being asked by the NATO Alliance hub to take a side with them or else go down as the helper of the villain in the world’s history. Here, arbitrarily the rising economies, emerging regional and world powers, underperforming economies, and all other small nations worldwide are made as soft targets.
The west as well as other stakeholders have to introspect and understand that international diplomacy and international relations are not always based on mutualism; it’s always based on public interest. The western powers won’t take a single decision in which their vested economic and geopolitical interest and that of their respective people’s interest are not valued (or given proper importance). To arbitrarily demand soft targets to: “take my way or take the highway” is actually disheartening. Particularly smaller nations are just demanded to agree with NATO conspired ideas without even considering their respective positions and without consulting their public’s interest that won’t line with the statement of the west then the west tries every means to criticize that very entity.
Those countries are then made soft targets or easy prey and the powerful ones will do everything to bring them into the bad limelight. Here, the best example is the buying of discounted oil by India from the Russian Federation. It’s natural that when a crisis takes birth it glooms each and every part of business and the economy. Prices of basic amenities soar high and in such cases, every responsible country looks for the best deal for the respective citizens. Similarly, India got the best deal from Russia but then keep in mind we are buying just a fraction of our need from Russia as the majority of our energy and oil need comes from the middle east. Just when India struck the deal with the Russian Federation, there were bombardments of criticism from the countries in that part of the world which bought more oil and gas from Russia than India did. In every world forum, India became a villain, hence a soft target.
Correspondingly there is Mexico, China, and many such countries who do a great amount of trade with the Russian Federation. Keeping the sword at the neck of such nations and ask them to: “take my way or take the highway” won’t help recover from the COVID-19 and Climate emergency situation and rejuvenate the global economy.
Rather it will worsen the scenario. Each and every country has its own domestic, regional and global interests and right to follow and make decisions that are in parallel to their betterment, growth, and development. In this respect, the west and other powerful blocs like NATO Alliance are no one to demotivate and criticize another nation for not following their footsteps and condemn a victim nation have been aspiring to squeeze and destroy. The way both China and India have dealt with to date is really commendable. The way these two nations have reacted and responded to the NATO alliance club have indeed put them on the world map, as power balancing forces that have drawn their respective pathways of international diplomacy by distancing themselves and keeping their independence from blocs.
Particularly, in the case of India, since 1947, the decision to remain non-aligned has actually prepared its roadmap for a better India in the international forums. Given that the world is no more bipolar rather multipolar in its partisan’s behavior, in forthcoming years, both China and India will definitely play a key role in balancing the empowerment fulcrum. Let us hope that the due respect is given to the decisions of non-allied nations and not attempt to make them soft targets. Likewise, the UN must play a bigger role in such global affairs rather than falling pray and directly siding with the NATO Alliance powers who opt for Hegemony and destruction based on false pretext of defending freedom, when they themselves do not understand and practice what the essence of freedom stands for.
India Reacts to Withstand Soft-Targeting
After the Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics of the Biden administration, Daleep Singh, threatened India with ‘consequences’ for purchasing oil from Russia and setting up an alternate payment mechanism to circumvent US sanctions, it was expected that the tempers would run high.
Although India finds itself in a risky situation, its stand has remained unaffected. Instead of towing the US line, it has increased its imports of Russian oil. Initially when the conflict started on February 24, 2022, India abstained itself from UN Voting against Russia. In India, a narrative was created that proposed Ukraine and USA as villains and Putin as the helpless victim of hegemony at play through proxy (hybrid) war strategy devised by the NATO alliance. Just as any other non-allied state to the NATO hub, the government in India had done a good job on social media; portraying Ukraine as responsible for this war as it wanted to join NATO for which, Russia had no choice but to fight back. Both the US and NATO fabricated fake stories to wage psychological demoralization on Russia and its supporters. As a hegemonic power seeker that continuously try coercing any nation standing n its way by sending its naval fleet in various parts of the seas and oceans. As overtly done in recent weeks, the US continues supplying sophisticated war machinery to Ukraine which Ukraine and neighboring countries to Russia can repeatedly use against Russia in any eventual war situation.
These are few incidents that are fresh in public mind and hence it was easier for the supporters of the NATO alliance to manipulate the perception of the masses in the western world and elsewhere.
There is little common between India of today and the USA. The Asian idea of Freedom and Equality is different than the colonial western nations. In the western world, government officials and their supporters loath the idea of Values. The current government in USA has acquired power with its aim to make the Western world pragmatic. For them values have no importance in real world. Although in the short run gruesome hardheadedness may appeal to the people but finally it’s the Values that decide the destiny of any given society. As the saying goes: Your beliefs become your thoughts, your thoughts become your words, your words become your actions, your actions become your habits, your habits become your values, and your values become your destiny.
Bondages Betwixt China, India and Russia
The Ukraine –Russia war has finally tied China and India into knots; and it is now particularly difficult for these two emerging powerful nations to untangle themselves from this sticky situation. The purchase of Oil might make Biden’s efforts difficult but it also does not make India’s situation any laid-back. The warning on China not to sell weapons to Russia does not make China’s current status any relaxed than before. These two nations are at a crossroad today. They are bound to choose their friends and partners very carefully.
Global order, enforcing international laws, diplomacy and United Nations have all failed miserably so far. A war can never be justified. It can never resolve any conflicting issues. But it’s devastating damage potential was repeatedly seen in the long human history. Ukraine is left alone to face massive military strikes by Russia.
What is The Upshot of the Russo-Ukraine Crisis Thus Far?
The current Russo-Ukraine crisis stems from the US using NATO as its main tool to cannibalize and squeeze Russia’s strategic space. Yet, the US& NATO representatives failed to walk the big talks – did not deploy even a small contingent of Forces to help Ukraine from the Russian invasion – almost failed route of slapping sanctions against Russia that did not achieve the purpose in the past – a pathetic plight of Ukraine left to fend for itself has unfolded so far.
Multiple global supply chains human & economic cycles are already staring at a fast-breaking point. War is never a good news for any nation, more so for an Aggressor Invader nation – nor the victim nation – as bitter facts are bound to tumble out sooner than later.
And Russia is almost set to wriggle out of the menacing war waged against hapless Ukraine. Will it not embolden China to expand its questionable excesses in a bid to become top most global power?
Ties between Moscow and Beijing are now closer than any time since the days of Stalin and Mao, driven by a shared perception that the United States is each country’s primary foreign policy challenge.
Today Economic Squeezing Exercise is on Russia, Tomorrow …
Having grabbed Afghanistan’s foreign reserves and Venezuela’s foreign reserves and those of other countries in the past, the United States grabbed Russia’s reserves. Under sanctions put in place after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, foreign currency reserves held by the Russian central bank at U.S. financial institutions were frozen.
But the Treasury Department had been allowing the Russian government to use those funds to make coupon payments on dollar-denominated sovereign debt on a case-by-case basis.
On Monday, April 4, 2022, as the largest of the payments came due, including a $552.4 million principal payment on a maturing bond, the U.S. government decided to cut off Moscow’s access to the frozen funds, according to a U.S. Treasury spokesperson.
An $84 million coupon payment was also due on Monday on a 2042 sovereign dollar bond. The move was meant to force Moscow to make the difficult decision of whether it would use dollars that it has access to for payments on its debt or for other purposes, including supporting its war effort, the spokesperson said.
As has been accounted herein above, today, the squeezing exercise is being manipulated on Russia, tomorrow it is any other nation outside the NATO Alliance that tries refuses to go the NATO alliance way. Leaders in Beijing, Delhi, and around the rest of the world will see the US response to the Russo Ukraine crisis as sending signals about whether the US could effectively respond to future crises in the Taiwan Strait or East or South China Seas in which case the US could do something similar in Asia. Moreover, China’s and India’s approach to Russia amid a crisis is being interpreted as sending signals about China’s and India’s respective own capabilities and influences worldwide. Particularly, China’s decision either to adhere to the ongoing new Western sanctions or to help Russia come out of them will shape the escalation pathways and determine the magnitude of economic and political isolation that sanctions are intended to impose.
The Need for an Evolved Civilized Human Order
This gruesome Russo-Ukraine war crisis should be a wakeup call for all humanity to explore much better global order that would enable to maintain the foreign policy in a more balanced dialogues between nations with mutual respect to one another. Such actions could help to constructively bridge the yawning inequalities, imbalances on fair grounds. A global sync in aiming for a solitary military under the leadership of the united mankind – for all nations – instead of individual nations piling up their NATO military ware in endless mad-mad rat race that could be a difficult task to respond to any worthy cause and reorientation, or a leap towards a higher plane of humanity. To keep the global power play in balance a new dual world economic order is being envisioned as a likely solution to bear likely democratic world order.
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