Is Ethiopia the next Ukraine (By Worku Gebeyehu Lakew)

By Worku Gebeyehu Lakew, author of Empire and Revolution in Ethiopia, AA, 2018
April 1,2019

The question is not as sensational as it sounds. Admittedly, there is no longer any serious
soviet/Russian presence in Ethiopia/HOA and Africom, the Djibouti based US command for Africa is not NATO. If the United States is in Ethiopia, as it is, it will be because of African and Middle Eastern geopolitics but a more recent addition to these factors is the presence of China, it’s newly declared existential threat. China is deeply embedded within the Ethiopian economy and easily, its largest investor and source of imports and technology. And there is a contested swing from Chinese
influence in economic development strategy which had taken place in the period after the death of
Prime Minister Meles, but started during the last few years of his rule, towards a more confident
neoliberalism and towards the United States, now and still in the making.However the driving shift that the title of this article suggests is not one of cold war driven geopolitics but of political
economy and direction of the future development of the country. While this is in some ways in a
state of flux, in other ways the US has long ago decided that it is in the interest of the national
security of the US to be the dominant superpower geo-politically, and from a security and military
viewpoint, in Ethiopia. Increasingly, this shift is also happening in the field of the development of the economy and capital markets. One of the key questions is, can the national security interest of China accept being subordinated to the US and can its economic interests be totally in hoc to this global hegemonic superpower in Ethiopia? While this is an important question the article’s main focus is the changes that have already taken place in Ethiopia and what may still be happening in the near future.

Editor’s note : to read full article, please click links provided below

PDF file of part I of the article
PDF file of part II of the article



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