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What does it take to have a successful regime change or revolution? And what is missing in Ethiopia?

In an appearance on RT, Jack Goldston, University professor in the United States, identified factors that make revolutions successful. Jack tends to expect next big revolution in countries where there are weak government and ethnic divisions and that makes Ethiopia a good candidate. But what factors are missing in Ethiopia right now?

Revolution_What is missing in Ethiopia
Sophie Shevardnadze interviewing Jack Goldstone
Photo : Screenshot from RT Video

February 1, 2018

Sophie Shevardnadze of RT spoke to Dr. Jack Goldstone, a week or so ago, who is a scholar of revolutions and public policy professor at George Mason Univerity. He served as a consultant to the United States government in the past.

“Wherever there is injustice and deep inequality, there is always a chance of revolt,” says Jack Goldstone.

But the most important question that Sophie posed to Jack is as to what it takes to have a successful revolution?

He identified three important factors to overthrow a regime. A popular discontent, popular mobilization and actors within the leadership of the regime who feel that the regime is no longer serving national interest; people in the bureaucracy and in the military or both that see national merit in regime change.

To relate the above discussion to the Ethiopian situation, there is certainly popular discontent in Ethiopia as it has manifested itself for more than a decade now. The regime is clearly showing signs of vulnerability and potential collapse. Yet, the downfall is not happening and the regime seem to be buying time to reconsolidate itself.

What is standing between change (revolution) and the Ethiopians’ struggle for change? Do we have all the three elements in Ethiopia in a perfect proportion? Or ethnic politics is sapping the energy of the youth, a section of the population which is considered to be a primary factor in making a revolution successful? Share your thoughts in the comment thread below. If you intend to write an article about it, please send your submission to editor@borken.com

Video: Embedded from RT
Cover photo : screenshot from RT Video
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