August 19, 2016
In an report published today entitled “A Muffled Insurrection in Ethiopia,” Stratfor American publisher of Geopolitical intelligence and military forecasts, which seem to have well over 450,000 readers, thinks that “Ethiopia’s Tigray-dominated government may not be able to sustain its hold on power for much longer”
Delving into analysis of the background of the widespread popular protests in North Western, Central, South Eastern, South Western and South Central Ethiopia, Stratfor makes the point that the protests could change the course of Ethiopia’s future if they if Amhara and Oromos are acting together.
The report also notes that “the focus of the protests shifted to demands for political equality and an end to the Tigray-dominated ruling coalition’s reign.” From the nature of protests over the past several weeks, it is indeed clear that the political movement evolving to an assertive and revolutionary like movement unlike the movements in the past 25 years of Tgray people’s Liberation Front dominated reign.
While Stratfor accurately understood what Prime Minster Startfor represents politically and his role in the ruling TPLF government, it seem to suggest that “…a change of leadership could bring greater political freedoms, such as allowing outlawed opposition groups to take part in free and fair elections. On the other hand, it could also lead to prolonged conflict and instability.”
“Together” writes Stratford, “the Oromo and Amhara are a more serious threat to Ethiopia’s leadership than the Oromo on their own. ”
Cover Photo : Screenshot of election campaign TPLF style