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Ethiopia stands 19th from the top 20 in Fragile State Index

Image : Screenshot of FP World Fragile State Map
Image : Screenshot of FP World Fragile State Map

by Dimetros Birku

Ethiopia stands 19th from among all the states of the world in Foreign Policy Magazine  “Fragile State Index.”

What is Fragile State index in the first place? It is what used to be “Failed States Index” according to Foreign Policy Magazine but the metrics and methodology of Fragile State Index is not changed.

“Although the overall picture here might seem familiar, the numbers themselves reveal narratives that were unforeseen, and perhaps overlooked, in 2013” wrote Foreign Policy.

On what basis is the fragility measured?

Foreign policy listed about 12 metrics : Demographic pressures, Refugees and Internally Displaced people, Group Grievance, Human flight, Uneven Development, Poverty and Economic Decline, Legitimacy of the State, Public Services, Human Rights, Security Apparatus, Factionalized Elites and External Intervention. Click here to see how the indicators are defined

Based on that index,  Ethiopia ranks 19th from the top 20 fragile states of the world ; even poorer performance than Eritrea which the index put in the 23rd rank. “Legitimacy of the State” as an indicator seem to be particularly important in the case of Ethiopia.  For the purpose of the study, Legitimacy of the State is defined as “Corruption and other measures of democratic capacity, such as government performance and electoral process.”

It seems to me that the metric “Legitimacy of the State” – is capable of explaining the sense of insecurity the regime in Ethiopia is experiencing and the consequences of it including prevalent gross human rights violations.

Six African countries are in the top list of the Fragile index:

  • South Sudan
  • Somalia
  • Central Africa Republic
  • Congo (DRC)
  • Sudan
  • Chad

In that order.

Neighboring  Kenya stands shy of Ethiopia’s position at the spot of 18th.

The analysis is based on 2013 performance.  For more, please click here




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